2012 MLB Preview: AL Central

After emerging as the "mystery team" in the Prince Fielder sweepstakes, the Detroit Tigers now have their sights set on more than just repeating as division champs.  The core of their team already included one of the best positional players in Miguel Cabrera and last year's American League MVP Justin Verlander.  With Prince on board the team hopes they'll be contenders for the next several years. The rest of the division will be fighting for seconds as all of them have serious concerns.  Kansas City is a team on the rise but their young rotation isn't ready to lead them.  Chicago says it's rebuilding but is stuck with some albatross contracts that prevent them from going all-in at anything.  Cleveland is probably one pitcher short of being taken seriously making their performance in the first two months critical for their playoff chances. Minnesota has a little bit of everything from injury concerns to aging players that the team cannot or will not move.  If you like high scoring games with little regard for the team's overall record then this is the division for you.

Chicago White Sox

2011 Record: 79-83

2012 Estimated Team Salary: $98 million
Highest Paid Player: Jake Peavy - $17 million
Best Player: Paul Konerko just keeps on ticking.  He's second all time in franchise history in HR, RBI,  and will be second in total bases by May.
Best Pitcher: John Danks had a bit of a down year in 2011 but some of that may be attributed to injury, Ozzie Guillen, and bad luck.  His peripherals remained strong and he's an excellent bounce back candidate in 2012.
Say Hello To: Simon Castro RP, Delwyn Young UT, Dan Johnson 1B, Kosuke Fukudome OF
Wave Goodbye: Mark Buehrle SP (Mia), Juan Pierre OF (Phi), Omar Vizquel INF (Tor), Sergio Santos CL (Tor), Tony Pena RP (Bos), Jason Frasor RP (Tor), Carlos Quentin OF (SD)
Biggest Questions:
1. Is Adam Dunn done?  Dunn seemed like the perfect fit for the Cell since it's a great home run park, he's a home run hitter, and he can DH. Instead he had one of the worst seasons of all time and despite walking 75 times he managed only 11 home runs and a putrid .159 batting average.  He's looked good in spring training making me optimistic there's still some left but it's clear the Sox aren't getting what they paid for.

2. Who's the next guy to go?  Sox management traded a boatload of players and even manager Ozzie Guillen in the offseason.  Expecting them to continue to dismantle in an effort to rebuild the worst minor league system in baseball would be wise.  John Danks has been rumored to be available but the price remains too high as of now.  Danks, Floyd, and even Peavy if he's pitching well could be moved this summer.

3. How bad is the farm system?  It's really bad.  Baseball Prospectus ranked the top 100 prospects in the minor leagues and the Sox had zero on the list.  On the Up and In podcast, Kevin Goldstein says it's the worst he's ever seen and when he asked other scouts to name a top prospect none came to mind. It's bad but at least it can't get worse. 

Expectations: Realistically this team could finish anywhere from second to fifth.  If Dunn and Rios rebound then this offense can be pretty good.  The bullpen lacks depth and so does the rotation.  While Northsiders will be crying about how bad the Cubs are, at least Sox fans have the potential to be entertained by exciting - albeit not necessarily good - baseball.

Beckham is a great defensive player but
his offense is still lacking.

Probable Opening day lineup:

1. De Aza CF

2. Rios RF

3. Ramirez SS

4. Konerko 1B
5. Dunn DH

6. Fukudome LF

7. Pierzynski C

8. Morel 3B
9. Beckham 2B

Probable Rotation/Closer
1. Danks
2. Peavy
3. Floyd
4. Sale
5. Humber

CL: Thornton

MLB Prospect Watch: Catcher

Last season the upper minors were full of potential stars that were nearly ready to take the next step and make their mark in the majors. Andrew McCutcheon is now the headliner of that group though other Colby Rasmus and Dexter Fowler found themselves starting for playoff teams. 

So which position is due to see the next large influx of talent? It's got to be catcher.  When one sees Jason Kendall getting starts everyday in Kansas City and read that Brad Ausmus is miraculously still employed, it's easy to wonder where all the catching talent has been for the past decade.  Well, it's coming.

Carlos Santana - This switch hitting catcher is Cleveland's number one prospect and a top five prospect in all of baseball. He looks like he will develop into being a middle of the order hitter with good power and patience (much like Victor Martinez but better).  His defense, though not bad, could still use some fine tuning which is why Cleveland assigned him to AAA to begin the season.
Prediction for permanent call-up: He'll likely be up by September and will be the starter from there on out.

Buster Posey - I don't know what the Giants are thinking. Posey will never have the power that Santana possesses but his on-base skills are especially unique for a catcher.  He would not be miscast as a top of the lineup hitter and if he were allowed to start on the big league club this season instead of Benji Molina, he'd be one of San Francisco's three best hitters. Alas, Brian Sabean says he needs to work on his "game calling" which most people agree is either overrated or is something he should learn in the majors with the pitchers he'll be working with for years to come.
Prediction for permanent call-up: June 2010

Jesus Montero - Perhaps the only player in all the minor leagues who can claim to have bigger power than Montero is Florida's Michael Stanton.  His on-base skills also appear to be very good meaning he will be an offensive force once called up to the big leagues. The knock on Montero is his defense. He has no range and some scouts have said he needs to work on his throwing though he does have a strong arm.  These things are exacerbated by the fact that he's big-very big- for a catcher (6'4" 225lbs) which leads many scouts to believe he'll be a first baseman or DH.  Jorge Posada won't block him though as he's nearing the end of his career and his defense might actually be worse than Montero's at this point.
Prediction for permanent call-up: This is a tricky one with Teixeira entrenched at first for the next seven years and Posada not ready to hang 'em up yet. I think he'll at least split time at catcher and DH on Opening day of 2011.

Wilson Ramos - Ramos has the unfortunate circumstance of being blocked by not only the best catcher in baseball but likely on of the greatest of all time. He's got a cannon arm and a minor league career line of .293/.342/.434.  A player with these skills is an asset to any team who doesn't have Joe Mauer. Ramos should continue his steady ascent through the minors as long  as he's able to stay healthy. Minnesota assigned him to AAA Rochester to begin the season.
Prediction for permanent call-up: Expect the Twins to trade Ramos at some point before the 2011 season. Where he lands will provide a better idea of when he will be called up.

Tyler Flowers: Flowers is another big catcher whose size once caused scouts to believe he had no future behind the plate.  That changed last year as he proved he was more than capable of blocking the plate although he only threw out 29% of attempted base stealers.  He could be a poor man's version of Montero with not quite as much power but still possessing a good eye at the plate. The White Sox probably think he's ready but want him to start every day justifying their decision to send him to AAA Charlotte to start the season.  Though he'll never be an MVP candidate, he could make a few all-star teams and hit 20-25 home runs each year.  That's quite a projection for someone who's considered the fifth best catching prospect.
Prediction for permanent call-up: Opening day 2011 as the White Sox starting catcher.

Hank Conger - Conger is another switch hitting catcher who has displayed good power in the minors.  It also appears that he is making great improvements in pitch recognition as he more than doubled his walk rate in his promotion to AA last year.  His defense, however, may be his limiting factor. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus implied that it's bad enough to prevent him from ever becoming a starter. He's also "blessed" with Benji Molina speed.
Prediction for permanent call-up: This depends with what the Angels want to do with their two-headed monster of Jeff Mathis and Mike Napoli.  He will be ready in 2011 to stay in the bigs.

Jason Castro - Castro is another player whose defensive liabilities have many scouts questioning whether or not he'll be able to stay behind the plate. Keith Law believes he has the skills to stay where he is.  His offense is solid but he has no spectacular facet to his game. Of all the players on this list he has the lowest ceiling but after Santana and Montero is also the most likely to be a consistent major leaguer.
Prediction for permanent call-up: Houston has no excuse for keeping him in the minors in 2011. Expect a September cup of coffee and a permanent job starting Opening Day 2011.

This is an impressive list of talent that should be starting to break through as soon as this summer.  Also consider the fact that Brian McCann (26), Jesus Flores (25), Kurt Suzuki (26), and Matt Wieters (24) are still not yet into the prime of their careers and it's easy to see why this position could be loaded for a long time.