2012 MLB Preview: AL Central

After emerging as the "mystery team" in the Prince Fielder sweepstakes, the Detroit Tigers now have their sights set on more than just repeating as division champs.  The core of their team already included one of the best positional players in Miguel Cabrera and last year's American League MVP Justin Verlander.  With Prince on board the team hopes they'll be contenders for the next several years. The rest of the division will be fighting for seconds as all of them have serious concerns.  Kansas City is a team on the rise but their young rotation isn't ready to lead them.  Chicago says it's rebuilding but is stuck with some albatross contracts that prevent them from going all-in at anything.  Cleveland is probably one pitcher short of being taken seriously making their performance in the first two months critical for their playoff chances. Minnesota has a little bit of everything from injury concerns to aging players that the team cannot or will not move.  If you like high scoring games with little regard for the team's overall record then this is the division for you.

Chicago White Sox

2011 Record: 79-83

2012 Estimated Team Salary: $98 million
Highest Paid Player: Jake Peavy - $17 million
Best Player: Paul Konerko just keeps on ticking.  He's second all time in franchise history in HR, RBI,  and will be second in total bases by May.
Best Pitcher: John Danks had a bit of a down year in 2011 but some of that may be attributed to injury, Ozzie Guillen, and bad luck.  His peripherals remained strong and he's an excellent bounce back candidate in 2012.
Say Hello To: Simon Castro RP, Delwyn Young UT, Dan Johnson 1B, Kosuke Fukudome OF
Wave Goodbye: Mark Buehrle SP (Mia), Juan Pierre OF (Phi), Omar Vizquel INF (Tor), Sergio Santos CL (Tor), Tony Pena RP (Bos), Jason Frasor RP (Tor), Carlos Quentin OF (SD)
Biggest Questions:
1. Is Adam Dunn done?  Dunn seemed like the perfect fit for the Cell since it's a great home run park, he's a home run hitter, and he can DH. Instead he had one of the worst seasons of all time and despite walking 75 times he managed only 11 home runs and a putrid .159 batting average.  He's looked good in spring training making me optimistic there's still some left but it's clear the Sox aren't getting what they paid for.

2. Who's the next guy to go?  Sox management traded a boatload of players and even manager Ozzie Guillen in the offseason.  Expecting them to continue to dismantle in an effort to rebuild the worst minor league system in baseball would be wise.  John Danks has been rumored to be available but the price remains too high as of now.  Danks, Floyd, and even Peavy if he's pitching well could be moved this summer.

3. How bad is the farm system?  It's really bad.  Baseball Prospectus ranked the top 100 prospects in the minor leagues and the Sox had zero on the list.  On the Up and In podcast, Kevin Goldstein says it's the worst he's ever seen and when he asked other scouts to name a top prospect none came to mind. It's bad but at least it can't get worse. 

Expectations: Realistically this team could finish anywhere from second to fifth.  If Dunn and Rios rebound then this offense can be pretty good.  The bullpen lacks depth and so does the rotation.  While Northsiders will be crying about how bad the Cubs are, at least Sox fans have the potential to be entertained by exciting - albeit not necessarily good - baseball.

Beckham is a great defensive player but
his offense is still lacking.

Probable Opening day lineup:

1. De Aza CF

2. Rios RF

3. Ramirez SS

4. Konerko 1B
5. Dunn DH

6. Fukudome LF

7. Pierzynski C

8. Morel 3B
9. Beckham 2B

Probable Rotation/Closer
1. Danks
2. Peavy
3. Floyd
4. Sale
5. Humber

CL: Thornton

2011 MLB Predictions: AL Central

When I finish all the previews I'll add a post in which I predict each team's final record as well as individual award winners.

Chicago White Sox
Best Player: Tough one. I think I'd take Dunn though if Beckham plays like he did down the stretch last season he's the pick.
Best Pitcher: Jon Danks - not Buehrle -is the best pitcher on the team. It would be Peavy if he could make more than 12 starts.
Biggest off-season move:  Adam Dunn is the perfect hitter for Cellular One Field.
Biggest off-season loss: Many may disagree but losing Bobby Jenks hurts the bullpen's depth.
Biggest Questions:
1. Can Gordon Beckham rebound? Beckham hit .270/.347/.460 as a rookie but slipped to .252/.317/.378 last year with only 9 home runs. Can improve on his rookie season's performance  and become a superstar or will he just be an average second baseman?
2. The Bullpen.  Gone are Putz and Jenks.  Chris Sale is up to take one spot but can Jesse Crain and Will Ohman be consistent enough to keep Ozzie of their backs?
3. Third base. Brent Morel won the job in spring training but he's no superstar. If he slumps Ozzie will throw Teahen out there and we know how that went last season.
Expectations: This offense is good. Expect lots of base stealing attempts from Pierre, Rios, and possibly Beckham. Expect lots of home runs. Expect good starting pitching. I also expect a division title.
Opening day lineup:
1. Pierre LF
2. Beckham 2B
3. Dunn DH
4. Konerko 1B
5. Rios CF
6. Quentin RF
7. Pierzynski C
8. Ramirez SS
9. Morel 3B
SP Mark Buehrle

Thoughts on recent baseball signings

Tuesday Oakland officially signed Ben Sheets to a one year deal worth $10 plus incentives.  A lof of people may question this move for both Oakland and Sheets.  While I agree that $10 million seems a little pricey for a player who didn't throw a single pitch last year, it's also worth noting that the year off probably did Sheets some good.  Sheets missed last season while recovering from flexor tendon surgery in his pitching elbow.  This is not TJ surgery although there may be a similar "feeling out period" as he tries to regain his form and control.  Sheets has a career WHIP of 1.20 and is third (behind Pedro & Mariano Rivera - not bad company, eh?) among active pitchers with a 3.85 K-BB ratio. 
The big risk here is obviously health.  Mr. Sheets has not pitched 200 innings in a season since 2004 (although he had 198 in 2008).  He's missed time with various ailments related to his shoulder, bicep, back, and hamstring.  I think his year away from baseball was a good thing because by not trying to pitch every fifth day (or recover from a nagging injury) his body had time to heal.  I think he's a good bet to pitch 160-180 innings.  I doubt the A's try to push him too hard for fear of killing him.  This means if Sheets can come close to his career performance he'll be easily worth the money. 
Now whether or not you think the A's can compete is an entirely different question.  Beane has at least improved the squad and if they're out of it he'll get a couple of prospects for him.  I think this is maybe the best signing of the winter.


Jim Thome also signed this week with Minnesota.  I never thought he'd end up there for a couple of reasons.  First, Thome seemed like an obvious fit for the White Sox and he even lobbied to return to Chicago.  Second, since Thome is a DH only now, there seems no place for him to play in Minnesota. Twins GM Bill Smith has already said Thome is a bench option and that Jason Kubel will remain the starting DH.  My guess is that Smith isn't too confident in LF Delmon Young and is hedging his bets.  I think it's a strong move for a team that often waits too long to make a move during the season.  With this in mind I can see Gardenhire sticking to his guns far too long meaning Thome will waste away on the bench for at least half the season. 

That's all for now.  I'm about to enjoy a Purdue victory over Wisconsin. Boiler up!

Monday Meanderings

• I think everyone was sick to their stomach when they heard the ARod news.  The question now is, how will the fans react?  Here's what Peter Gammons had to say after the interview.
• Still, some people aren't convinced he's being honest. 
• Breathe easy Cub fans.  The Cardinals made a surprising move today.  If LaRussa didn't want him to be the starter couldn't he just be a backup?  After all he is better than Brendan Ryan.
• Sometimes it's the moves you don't make that allow you to win.  The Twins should ignore that catch phrase and sign their guy.  The AL Central is going to be a tight race and this guy could probably put them over the top.
• Speaking of tight races, this news has to frustrate Rays fans.
• Looks like the Mets are happy with their team.  Sorry Manny but it looks like Omar Minaya doesn't want the headache.

Statistical Observations of Mike Redmond

While reading Sox Machine yesterday, I noticed an archived link that showed Mike Redmond was 14-28 in his career versus Mark Buehrle.  I thought that somewhat interesting since Mike Remond is probably most famous for his career line vs. Tom Glavine (21-48).  This caused me to run some numbers on some pitchers I consider similar to Glavine and Buehrle (soft-tossing, control oriented lefties).

• Tom Glavine 21-48   .438
• Mark Buehrle 14-28 .500
• Mike Hampton 9-21 .429
• Barry Zito        0-3    .000
• Jamie Moyer   2-3    .667
• Al Leiter         13-29  .448
• Andy Pettitte  2-3     .667
• Odalis Perez   8-17    .471
• Horacio Ramirez 2-6 .333

Pretty interesting line, don't you think?

Here is how Redmond has fared versus some harder throwing lefties:

• Randy Johnson  5-22  .227
• Oliver Perez       1-4    .225
• Scott Kazmir      2-6    .333
• Erik Bedard       2-5     .400
• CC Sabathia      13-26  .500
• Billy Wagner     2-6     .333
• Ervin Santana   0-6     .000
• Ted Lilly            0-2     .000

Not as impressive, but that 13-26 line against CC is incredible.  I sent my findings to Jon Marthaler, one of the main authors of Twinkietown, to see if he had any insight.  He confirmed what I was thinking:

I like the comparison and I don't think it's surprising Redmond has more success against guys that don't throw particularly hard.  After all, he doesn't exactly have the quickest hands in the league - he's no Paul Molitor, for certain.  Against guys that throw hard, he's sort of reduced to choking up on the bat and trying to poke the ball to right, and while that's not a bad strategy, he looks like a guy with a tennis racket trying to fight off a cannonball.  

Adding to the fact that Joe Mauer is only 4-22 against Buehrle, Redmond at least justifies his #3 spot in the batting order 5 out of his 40 starts each year.

Should the Twins trade Delmon Young?

I know it's a bit early to be thinking fantasy baseball, so as the Winter Meetings near think of this as a topic of discussion for the GMs.  The Minnesota Twins are supposedly willing to listen to offers on Delmon Young.  The Twins are in a tough spot because Young is still only 23.  He's got a rocket arm and makes great contact (hits for a good average).  However he still hasn't learned that he doesn't have to swing at every pitch, his power hasn't developed, and he has a bit of an attitude.  Further complicating the issue is the fact that the Twins traded Matt Garza to get him.  Sure there are holes to fill but they can't give up on him now can they?

The Hardball Times examines this issue and concludes that being a candidate for a breakout and having the skill set to actually breakout are two different things.

Me? I think it's time to give up on him being the next Vladimir Guerrero and instead hope he turns into Al Oliver.