2012 MLB Preview: Predictions

It's a little late but I've decided to publish my preseason predictions anyway.

American League
East
New York	96	66	Have a solid rotation to match formidable offense
Tampa Bay	92	70	Maybe the best rotation in baseball
Boston	87	75	Lack of depth will cost them
Toronto	85	77	Still building but no playoffs in this division
Baltimore	68	94	Future is bright but rotation is worst in AL
Central
Detroit	91	71	Will lead the league in runs scored, errors
Cleveland	80	82	Need one more starter to be a factor
Chicago	77	85	Rios, Dunn rebound but Peavy, bullpen falter
Kansas City	76	86	Still waiting on young pitching to make impact
Minnesota	62	100	Questions about Mauer, Morneau, Baker linger
West
Texas	95	67	Most well rounded team in AL
LAA	89	73	Still have problems at LF, 3B, C
Seattle	73	89	Back end of rotation no match for AL offenses
Oakland	70	92	Cespedes and Weeks are good but not enough
National League
East
Atlanta	87	75	Heyward bounceback, trade of Lowe is enough
Philadelphia	86	76	Injuries to Howard, Utley hold team back
Miami	84	78	Poor outfield defense really hurts in new park
Washington	82	80	Too many questions on offense
New York	75	87	Not as bad as many expected
Central
Milwaukee	88	74	Greinke, Gallardo, Marcum combine for 54 wins
Cincinnati	87	75	Votto, Bruce lead league in teammate HR
St. Louis	84	78	Berkman, Beltran not as good as 2011
Pittsburgh	76	86	Deadline deals prevent team from reaching .500
Chicago	69	93	Theo's first year will be his worst
Houston	50	112	Have questions everywhere except 2B, LF
West
San Francisco	91	71	Great pitching and good offense takes division
Arizona	90	72	Upton, Young become top NL outfield duo
Colorado	78	84	Tulo accumulates more WAR than any 2 'mates
Los Angeles	77	85	Disgruntled Ethier, Kemp regression hurt team
San Diego	75	87	Hang tough thanks to home field advantage

2012 MLB Preview: NL West

The National League West is the division that seems to get less coverage than any other.  This may be because the Dodgers have been mediocre of late, the Rockies play in a smaller market, the late start times, or all of the above.  This is all too bad because there were some impressive performances in this division last season.  Ian Kennedy and Clayton Kershaw tied for the league lead with 21 wins apiece -Kershaw actually won the triple crown (wins, strikeouts, ERA) title.  Matt Kemp nearly won the hitter's triple crown, failing to win only the batting title where he finished third.  Troy Tulowitzki is one of the most impressive talents in baseball and last season put up his third straight season of 5 wins above replacement. There is a lot of individual talent but the depth of each team's rosters is lacking.  No team should run away from another and whoever finishes in last place may only be 10 games back giving each intradivisional matchup meaning.  That's good for baseball.

Arizona Diamondbacks

2011 Record: 94-68

2012 Estimated Team Salary: $72.9 million
Highest Paid Player: Stephen Drew - $7.75 million
Best Player: Justin Upton was expected to be a superstar when he broke through to the majors at age 19. Last season he seemed to put it together by hitting 31 homers and finishing with a .289/.369/.529 line.
Best Pitcher: Ian Kennedy had his breakthrough season last year going 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP.
Say Hello To: Lyle Overbay 1B, Trevor Cahill SP, Craig Breslow RP, Takashi Saito RP, Jason Kubel OF, Mike Jacobs 1B, Cody Ransom 3B, Craig Tatum C
Wave Goodbye: Xavier Nady OF, Jason Marquis SP,  Zach Duke SP (Hou), Collin Cowgill OF (Oak), Jarrod Parker SP (Oak), Ryan Cook RP (Oak), Micah Owings P (SD)
Biggest Questions:
1. Is this team the 2010-11 Padres? Oh no, they're much better than that.  The Padres won the division in 2010 due to an incredible bullpen, defense, and a ton of luck.  The Dbacks have some real talent on the roster and won't collapse like the Padres did last season.

2. Who's the biggest wild card on this team?  Stephen Drew's health is paramount. Willie Bloomquist is not a good enough player to have in the lineup everyday and while Drew may not have lived up to his hype, he's still a solid major league shortstop.  The longer the club is without him the tougher it will be to overtake the Giants.

3. Is Ian Kennedy the type of pitcher to build around long term? It's too soon to say although last season's results were pretty remarkable.  If he performs close to that level again this season Arizona should be working their butts off to keep him around. 

Expectations: The team traded for Oakland's #2 starter in the offseason in an effort to bolster their own rotation and signed Jason Kubel to be the left-handed side of their platoon in left field.  This team should compete and has a very good chance to get back to the playoffs.

Arizona traded for groundball machine Trevor Cahill to
improve a rotation and enhance their attempts to win now.

Probable Opening day lineup:

1. Bloomquist SS

2. Hill 2B

3. Upton RF

4. Montero C
5. Young CF

6. Kubel LF

7. Roberts 3B

8. Goldschmidt 1B

Probable Rotation/Closer
1. Kennedy
2. Hudson
3. Cahill
4. Collmenter
5. Saunders

CL: Putz

2011 MLB Predictions: NL West

What Lincecum (right) fails to realize is he just lost in the first round of the World Series of Beard. 

Brian Wilson (left) would go on to win both championships last November.

Instead of writing a preview of the National League Central we'll skip it and head to the West. The Central has six teams and will take a bit longer so I'll save it for last. In the West you've got the defending champions as well as some of the best players in baseball. Let's take a look.

Colorado Rockies
Best Player: Troy Tulowitzki is not only the best SS in baseball but possibly the best player in the National League.
Best Pitcher: Ubaldo Jimenez had 16 wins at the All-Star break last year.
Biggest off-season move:  Adding Ty Wigginton who can play each infield position may pay dividends.
Biggest off-season loss: Clint Barmes was a solid middle infielder.
Biggest Questions:
1. Is the rotation good enough to make the playoffs?  The rotation has questions, yes, but if Jason Hammel and Jorge de la Rosa are healthy they'll be just fine.
2. Was Carlos Gonzalez a fluke last year? Oakland gave up on him because they viewed him as an all-tools guy who couldn't put it together. I think those tools have translated into success.
3. What happens when Todd Helton gets hurt again? Helton's back issues are no secret but he's done better lately at staying in the lineup. Regardless, Colorado should have ample infield depth with Jose Lopez, Ty Wigginton, and Ian Stewart.
Expectations: This is a playoff caliber team and anything short of the playoffs will put pressure on everyone in the organization to get back to the level Colorado was at in 2008.
Opening day lineup:
1. Fowler CF
2. Smith RF
3. Gonzalez RF
4. Tulowitzki SS
5. Helton 1B
6. Wigginton 3B
7. Lopez 2B
8. Iannetta C
SP Ubaldo Jimenez

2010 San Francisco Giants team preview

2009 Record: 88-74   .543

Run Differential: +46

Going into 2009 San Francisco knew if they were going to make the playoffs they would have to be led by their pitching staff.  The staff didn't disappoint as Tim Lincecum won his second Cy Young Award and Matt Cain had his best season to date.  Jonathan Sanchez, plagued by inconsistency during his young career, even threw a no-hitter.  The most pleasant surprise was provided in the form of Barry Zito who reverted to his form in Oakland in the second half of the season. As the pitching staff paved the way the offense flopped.  Only Pablo Sandoval played well enough to give the team hope for the future as his .330/.387/.556 line was enough to make him an All Star in his first full season.  Edgar Renteria was brought in to stabilize the infield but hit only .250 with no power raising concerns that he might be done.  Fred Lewis failed to repeat his surprising 2008 and everyone else that got serious playing time stunk, too.  If it wasn't for their NL leading defense the Giants would have finished a distant fourth in the division as opposed to a couple of games out of the Wild Card.

Unfortunately 2010 looks more like a repeat of 2009 than a new chapter.

Season Preview: San Franciso Giants

2008 Record: 72-90  .444

Run differential: -119 (13^th)

2008 payroll: $76,594,500

Last season was first without Barry Bonds in a Giant uniform since 1992.  A sans Bonds offense coupled with a young rotation made San Francisco many experts’ mortal lock for 100 losses.  With a surprising performance by the rotation and extreme luck in one run games (31-21), the Giants were happily able to avoid the cellar and give the sportswriters a great big …burger to eat.  The major highlight was Tim Lincecum showing he is the best young hurler in baseball by winning the Cy Young Award in his first full season. Additionally Jonathan Sanchez finally had a defined role and Brian Wilson showed he has the stuff to be a big league closer.  Unfortunately filling Bonds’s shoes proved difficult as the offense was an embarrassment-- only managing 94 home runs and finishing ahead of just San Diego in runs scored.

The 2009 club isn’t much different.  Due to Brian Sabean’s never ending crush on 30+ year old men, San Fran signed a few guys to short deals hoping provide this team with more “leadership” in an effort to help them “go a long way.”  The most famous addition is the Big Unit who agreed to a one-year contract.  Also coming to town are two relievers to help shore up the pen in Affeldt and Howry.  Luckily, the team only signed one geezer to fix the offense. Banking that a return to the NL rejuvenates Edgár Rentería and finally letting rookie Travis Ishikawa as well as top hitting prospect Pablo Sandoval play could allow the offense to creep up to league average. 

This team needs to be cautious though since manager Bruce Bochy pushed his young pitchers so hard last season. We all know what happened to Prior and Wood when Dusty took the reins.  Let’s just hope Lincecum and Cain don’t suffer a similar end.  When you put everything together you get a team where if all things break right could find itself in the playoffs or with some bad luck could end up as one of the worst teams in baseball.  Either way this team has pitching depth that should be the foundation for their next contending teams.  Now to just find a way out of the Zito and Rowand contracts…

Likely opening day roster:

Pos.	Name	Salary	How Acquired
C	Bengie Molina	$6 M	Signed as FA 12/06
C	Steve Holm	$.39 M	Drafted 17th rd 2001
1b	Travis Ishikawa	$.39 M	Drafted 21st rd 2002
2b	Emmanuel Burris	$.39 M	Drafted #33 overall 2006
3b	Pablo Sandoval	$.39 M	Signed as amateur FA from Venezuela 2002
SS	Edgar Renteria	$7 M	Signed as FA 12/4/08
LF	Fred Lewis	$.392M	Drafted 2nd rd 2002
CF	Aaron Rowand	$8 M	Signed as FA 12/12/07
RF	Randy Winn	$8.25 M	Acquired in trade w/ Sea 7/05. Signed extension 2/06
Inf	Kevin Frandsen	$.398M	Drafted 17th rd 2004
Inf	Rich Aurilia		Non Roster Invitee
Of	Dave Roberts	$6.5 M	Signed as FA 12/06
UT	Eugenio Velez	$.39 M	Selected in AAA phase of Rule 5 draft '05
SP	Tim Lincecum	$.65 M	Drafted #10 overall 2006
SP	Matt Cain	$2.65 M	Drafted #25 overall 2002. Signed extension 3/07
SP	Randy Johnson	$8 M	Signed as FA 12/26/08
SP	Jonathan Sanchez	$.395M	Drafted 27th rd 2004
SP	Barry Zito	$18.5 M	Signed as FA 12/06
Cl	Brian Wilson	$.395M	Drafted 24th rd 2003
SU	Jeremy Affeldt	$3 M	Signed as FA 11/17/08
RP	Bobby Howry	$2.75 M	Signed as FA 12/3/08
RP	Jack Taschner	$.83 M	Drafted 2nd rd 1999
RP	Alex Hinshaw	$.39 M	Drafted 15th rd 2005
RP	Sergio Romo	$.39 M	Drafted 28th rd 2005
RP	Luis Perdomo	$.39 M	Selected in 2008 Rule 5 draft

Say hello to: Jeremy Affeldt, Bobby Howry, Randy Johnson, Edgár Rentería

Wave goodbye: Tyler Walker, Omar Vizquel

Rookies: Pablo Sandoval, Sergio Romo, Travis Ishikawa

Non-Roster Invitees to Watch: Ramon Ortiz, Buster Posey, Rich Aurilia, Josh Phelps, Juan Uribe

Potential breakout: Jonathan Sanchez, Fred Lewis

Welcome to Earth: Bengie Molina

Likely to rebound: Bobby Howry

Strengths: The rotation is excellent.

Weaknesses: The offense is putrid.  The left side of the infield has the same range as a rose bush.

Payroll obligations to former players: none

Optimal batting lineup (position, name, bats, Avg/OBP/Slg, HR, SB, EqA):

LF Lewis L  .287/.357/.458  9, 21  .281

SS Rentería R  .270/.317/.382  10, 6  .247

RF Winn B  .306/.363/.426  10, 25  .286

C  Molina R  .292/.322/.445  16, 0  .266

3B Sandoval B  .345/.357/490  3, 0  .297

CF Rowand R .271/.339/.410  13, 2  .262

1B Ishikawa L  .274/.337/.432  3, 1  .272

2B Burris R  .243/.333/.486  1, 0  .277

Prediction: 3^rd place and a losing record 

Bonds, HGH, and the Consequences

Did he or didn't he?  Most of this stuff appears to be true.

Typically I'm under the "innocent until proven guilty" umbrella but the circumstantial indicators appear much too damning.