Mid-Majors to Keep an Eye on

Each year come March, ESPN and other media outlets try to justify why this Mid-Major is a likely upset special or why that mid major got screwed by not making the tournament.  Today I'm going to make a list of the Mid-Majors (the Atlantic 10 is not a Mid-Major conference) that have a legitimate shot at not only qualifying for the NCAA Tournament but also winning a game.  Since we already know about Butler and Gonzaga I'll skip them and move on to less talked about programs.  Here we go:
note: I am doing this now so I can say, "I told you so" in three months

1. New Mexico (14-1): The Lobos are off to a scorching start and have some solid wins to back up this ranking (Cal, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Dayton).  I have them ranked 12th in my Power 16 which equates to a 3 seed and Joe Lunardi gives them a 4 seed in his latest Bracketology.  The Mountain West is a solid conference and if New Mexico can go 12-4 or better they'll maintain this projected seeding making them favored in their first tournament game.

2. BYU (14-1): Two schools from the MWC almost makes me want to reconsider this conferece as a Mid-Major.  BYU is an offensive machine. They have legitimate size and can shoot the lights out from beyond the arc.  They've scored at least 88 points in each of their last five games and have broken the century mark twice this season.  Even if they don't win their first round match-up they'll be fun to watch.

3. Old Dominion (9-5): Yes, they've been up and down so far in the non-conference but their schedule has been difficult. Losing at Dayton and to Missouri on a neutral floor is nothing to be ashamed of.  Defeating Georgetown and destroying Charlotte should get people's attention.

4. Harvard (10-3): The Crimson look to make their first ever tournament appearance in 2010 and to prepare they've played some quality opponents.  Two of their losses were to Big East foes UConn and Georgetown.  Basketball Prospectus just wrote a nifty little piece on this team.   According to Ken Pomeroy's stats, Harvard currently ranks third in both free throw percentage and two-point percentage. Don't sleep on the Ivy League!

5. Northern Iowa (10-4): I'm as surprised as you are that it's not Creighton in this spot.  Already 3-0 in conference play, give the Panthers credit for winning the ones they should.  Drubbing Boston College and Iowa makes UNI is nearly a lock to get an at large bid.

6. William & Mary (10-2): Although the Tribe hasn't yet beaten anyone of consequence, they are off to a great start. If they can split with Old Dominion and make it to their conference championship game they'll have made a solid case for two teams from the Colonial to go dancing.
7. UNLV (12-2): Playing in the MWC may actually be advantageous this season.  UNLV plays relentless defense, leading the nation in steal percentage.
8. Cornell (12-2): Very similar resume as Harvard in that their only two losses are to Big East opponents (Seton Hall, Syracuse).  Also, they are one of the tallest teams in the nation with 7'0" Jeff Foote.
9. Utah St. (10-5): One of the winningest programs over the last decade, the Aggies always give someone a scare in March..
10. VCU (9-2): VCU's offense is nothing special but they do a great job guarding the perimeter and do a good job protecting the ball.  If they face off against a team that is 3-point happy there could be an upset.

Fifteen Yr Big Ten All-Stars

Ryan and I have decided to create an all-star lineup for each of the Big Ten teams over the past fifteen seasons.  After talking it through, we also decided that we should have a tournament with the teams.  The voters will choose which team advances to the next round.  Seeding is determined by the number of Big Ten titles each team won over the time frame.  The teams that didn't win any titles were just assigned a seed based on our view of how talented the roster is.  The tournament theoretically takes place in Chicago's United Center.

Without further ado, the first game of the Big Ten tournament features a play-in game with 11th seeded Northwestern against 10th seeded Penn State.

	Northwestern	Pts		RB		Assts		Stls		Fg%		3pt%		FT%
PG	Geno Carlisle	15.8		2.7		3.3		0.8		0.393		0.368		0.766
SG	Jitim Young	13.0		4.6		2.0		1.8		0.471		0.305		0.626
SF	Vedran Vukusic	14.1		3.5		2.1		1.1		0.478		0.375		0.755
PF	Kevin Coble	14.2		5.3		1.7		1.5		0.484		0.390		0.778
C	Evan Eschmeyer	18.4		9.6		2.2		0.8		0.601		0.000		0.675
Bench	G Cedric Neloms	14.1		4.7		0.9		0.7		0.461		0.231		0.731
	F/C  Tavaras Hardy	9.5		5.4		1.9		0.8		0.448		0.208		0.579
	G TJ Parker	10.0		2.5		3.0		1.3		0.428		0.333		0.708

Carlisle: Lightening in a bottle, knows how to get to the basket. Transferred to Cal after 2 yrs.

Honors: 1st team All-Big Ten 1996

Young: The best player NWU has had in recent memory.  Guard that knows how to rebound.

Honors: 1st team All-Big Ten 2004

Vukusic: Solid outside shooter, but like most Euro players is a little soft.

Coble: Currently starting for the Wildcats.  This is a guy to keep your eye on b/c he can score from anywhere.

Eschmeyer: The only NBA talent on this team.  Dominated down low but his teams were unsuccessful due to atrocious guard play.  Honors: 1st team All-Big Ten 1997, 1998, 1999

Bench: Parker is super quick and plays sneaky good defense but his shooting was never good, Cedric Neloms led the Big Ten in FTs his Senior year, and Tavares Hardy is another solid big man.

Strengths: Post presence, quickness on the perimeter.  

With Kevin O'Neill running the show, the Wildcats will push the pace and hope for some easy opportunities.  When those opportunities don't present themselves the Wildcats have Eschmeyer to lean on in half court sets.

Weaknesses: Outside shooting. Overall athleticism.

Coble and Vukusic are both good outside shooters but the guards are not.  This may seem a little backwards in that the little guys prefer to shoot from the lane whereas the big guys want the ball outside.  This will cause a problem in creating 2nd opportunities--something the Wildcats need to be successful.

	Penn St.	Pts		RB		Assts		Stls		Fg%		3pt%		FT%
G	Dan Earl	12.6		2.7		4.1		1.6		0.467		0.383		0.788
G	Joe Crispin	15.6		2.9		3.8		1.0		0.381		0.348		0.885
G/F	Geary Claxton	15.1		7.4		1.6		1.0		0.443		0.330		0.650
F	John Amaechi	15.6		8.9		1.3				0.518				0.694
F	Calvin Booth	11.9		6.7		0.8		0.6		0.497		0.100		0.729
Bench	G Titus Ivory	15.9		3.8		3.4		1.7		0.441		0.358		0.836
	G Pete Lisicky	15.9		2.9		2.9		1.0		0.408		0.374		0.888
	F Jan Jagla	10.2		6.9		1.1		0.8		0.414		0.257		0.699

Earl: Solid PG skills.  Good passer, good defender, good shooter.  Nothing outstanding, just solid all-around.

Crispin: Don't let his FG% fool you.  This guy is a shooter.  His numbers suffered from being the best player on a bad team. Honors: 1st Team All-Big Ten 2001

Claxton: Very good rebounder for a guard. Matchup nightmare.  Would have been all 1st team Big Ten if not for a knee injury halfway through his senior season.

Amaechi: A giant on the boards.  Solid shooter from medium range and a solid defensive player. Honors: 1st Team All-Big Ten 1995

Booth: Another NBA bound big man.  Who knew?  Big, round body that other teams will have trouble pushing around.  Not that great of an athlete but good rebounder and FT shooter.  Honors: Defensive POY 1998.

Bench: Ivory and Lisicky are two more little guards that can shoot the lights out when they're hot.  Jagla is a solid bench contributor.

Strengths:  Penn State will definitely light up some scoreboards with their phalanx of distance shooting guards.  Geary Claxton will prove to be a formidable matchup problem for any Big 10 team with his unique size and skills; Claxton sports a true NBA guard body.  The Big Men create a formidable tag team.

Weaknesses:  Penn State basketball has been the weakest program by far since the Nittany Lions entered the Big 10 in 1993.  The team may have a horde of shooters but gaining rebounds and second chances will be highly difficult with their small bench.  An early exit seems inevitable, yet will anybody really care in Happy Valley?