2012 MLB Preview: NL East

Now that my NCAA bracket filled with scratch marks and red ink I think it's time to move on to some baseball.  Each year I do a preseason preview for every team and this year will be no different.

The National League East is likely the most improved division in baseball.  They didn't lose any high profile players to other divisions and the one big name that changed teams stayed in the division (Jose Reyes).  Several key players are coming back from injury and there's a lot of young talent that's beginning to mature. As a Braves fan I'm concerned their model for success won't work unless they make some changes but as a baseball fan it's great to see Washington and Miami are no longer pushovers.  Philadelphia is still the team to beat but they're pretty beat up right now making this officially a four team race for two (or three?) spots.

Atlanta Braves

2011 Record: 89-73

2012 Estimated Team Salary: $101.8 million
Highest Paid Player: Chipper Jones - $13 million
Best Player: Brian McCann has been an All-Star every full season he's played.
Best Pitcher: Tommy Hanson made strides towards becoming an ace last season.  If he's over the shoulder woes he'll be the man.
Say Hello To: Tyler Pastornicky SS, Drew Sutton INF
Wave Goodbye: Alex Gonzalez SS (Mil), Derek Lowe SP (Cle), George Sherrill RP (Sea), Scott Linebrink RP (StL), Brooks Conrad INF (Mil), Nate McLouth OF (Pit)
Biggest Questions:
1. Was standing pat the right move? The Braves didn't add a single player via free agency or trade this offseason.  The club is hoping one of Tyler Pastornicky or Andrelton Simmons will claim the shortstop job with a strong spring now that Alex Gonzalez has taken his .290 OBP to Milwaukee.

2. Is there enough offense to make the playoffs?  One of the reasons Atlanta didn't make any moves is because they believe the poor seasons of Jason Heyward, Martin Prado, and the first half from Dan Uggla were aberrations. They'll also get a full season from Michael Bourn who will provide an upgrade in center field.  A new hitting coach was hired as insurance for these guys.

3. Will this team be able to overcome injuries?  Everyone, even Jones himself, acknowledges Chipper cannot play a full season anymore (he's already being out 3 weeks).  If someone like Heyward and/or like Uggla have to miss extended time how will the team be able to cope?  The losses of Conrad and McLouth make the bench weaker than last season and put an enormous strain on the starters to stay healthy.

Expectations: I think the offense will be better than last season but the bullpen will take small step back. They'll be in the wild card race all year but in the end will fall just short unless they make a move at the deadline.

The Braves goal this year will be to win one last time
for Chipper.  They weren't able to do it for Bobby Cox so
I'm not optimistic this will end any differently.

Probable Opening day lineup:

1. Bourn CF

2. Prado 3B

3. McCann C

4. Uggla 2B
5. Freeman 1B

6. Heyward RF

7. Hinske LF

8. Pastornicky SS

Probable Rotation/Closer
1. Hanson
2. Minor
3. Beachy
4. Jurrjens
5. Medlen

Cl: Kimbrel

Marlins find money under couch cushions, add Jose Reyes

ESPN reported today that Jose Reyes agreed to a six year $102 million contract. I blogged earlier that the Marlins had money to spend but still actually seeing them use it is a bit of a shock. In 2011 Reyes led the league in batting average and triples and even scored 101 runs despite playing in only 126 games.  It was perhaps the finest all around season of his nine year career which is a good thing for a player in their prime years but perhaps a sign of caution for any team looking to sign him to a long-term deal.

Miami Marlins: A Major Player in Free Agency?

I recently read on ESPN.com that the Marlins are looking to make a splash in free agency and have hosted Albert Pujols.  At the end of his visit the Marlins made a contract proposal which they believe to be competitive in the hopes he will be in uniform next season to kick of their new stadium.  Now Miami (doesn’t that sound weird?) is looking at Jose Reyes and has recently said they would like to sign him in addition to Albert Pujols.  They are also considered the odds on favorite to land Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes.  Last season the Marlins ranked 13^th in the National League in players salary.  This was actually an improvement as they ranked 16^th (last), 16^th, and 14^th in 2008-2010. How can a team in their economic situation expect to be able to sign one – let alone two – free agents this offseason?  Or is this just a marketing ploy to show the fans that they’re trying to improve the club as they begin the next chapter in the franchise’s history?  

Follow the jump to see how realistic these aspirations really are.

2011 MLB Predictions: NL East

 David Wright believes his Lord Helmet can save him from the Schwartz as well as concussions.

Now it's time for the NL East.  The Phillies seem to be the champion on paper but let's take a deeper look.

Philadelphia Phillies
Best Player: Chase Utley but we don't know how long he'll be out. After Utley it's probably Ryan Howard.
Best Pitcher: Roy Halladay is the obvious answer here.
Biggest off-season move:  Adding Cliff Lee shocked everyone.
Biggest off-season loss: Jayson Werth was the team's third best hitter and was a good defensive outfielder.
Biggest Questions:
1. When will Chase Utley return? No one is certain if he'll be back in May or if it will be at the All-Star break. The Phillies may not need him to make the playoffs but winning the World Series will be an uphill climb without him.
2. How good is the rotation? Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt are four of the top twenty five pitchers in baseball. If no injuries beset the staff the offense won't need to be nearly as powerful as it has been in recent seasons.
3. Is Dominic Brown ready to be an impact player?  The Phillies don't need the rookie to be an all-star but with Utley hurt and Werth gone there is a void on offense.  Brown was the top hitting prospect last season but many scouts worry the team is too left-handed with him in the lineup.
Expectations: This is a World Series contender.  Anything short of reaching the Series will likely be seen as a disappointment.
Opening day lineup:
1. Victorino CF
2. Polanco 3B
3. Rollins SS
4. Howard 1B
5. Ibanez LF
6. Francisco RF
7. Ruiz C
8. Valdez 2B
SP Roy Halladay

2010 Florida Marlins team preview

2009 Record: 87-75   .537

Run Differential: +6

Widely considered to be one of the worst teams in baseball entering the season, Florida gave everyone a great big #@$ burger to eat. No, they didn't make the playoffs but they were very close.  Hanley Ramirez continued to add to his legend by winning the batting title, rookie Chris Coughlan surprised everyone by winning Rookie of the Year award, and Josh Johnson proved he is one of the league's best pitchers.  Realistically this team should not have had post season aspirations but Fredi Gonzalez some how skippered this team to exceeding all projections. I say somehow because any team that bats a guy like Bonifacion leadoff should be punished (ask Dusty Baker how his Willy Taveras/Corey Patterson experiments have fared).  Perhaps the real surprise here is how a team with such a low payroll can continue to exceed these expectations. 

With little roster turnover what should the expectations be for this squad in 2010?

Season Preview: Florida Marlins

2008 Record: 84-77  .522

Run differential: +3 (8^th)

2008 payroll: $21,811,500

2008 represented yet another season in which the kids in the south sun exceeded all expectations.  Finishing with a winning record despite trading away their two best known players in Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis is yet another testament to GM Larry Beinfest. Having the lowest payroll in the majors is not considered a handicap to this organization.  Instead it gives them an excuse to play minor leaguers who are ready for The Show.  When these players start to get expensive they are shipped off like Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham were this past offseason.  The catch is these guys aren’t stars but instead are cheaper than the alternatives in other organizations.  Even getting something for Kevin Gregg and Mike Jacobs who were candidates to be non-tendered is impressive.

2009 appears to be much like 2008 for the Fish.  Expectations are low, payroll is even lower, but the talent is here.  The organization even locked up Hanley Ramirez, who is arguably the best player in baseball, to a long-term contract. Plans for a new stadium finally appear to be in the works also.  There is no guarantee this will increase revenue for the franchise but you can bet that ownership is banking on it.  With the pipeline of young talent showing no signs of drying up and their best player locked in for several years, it would be foolish to bet against this team having an awful season.  The continuation of smart management decisions coupled with the growth of young players, could allow this franchise be building the next mini-dynasty.  It’s just up to ownership and the fans in Miami to determine how long it lasts.

Likely opening day roster:

Pos.	Name	Salary	How Acquired
C	John Baker	$.4 M	Acquired in trade w/ Oak 3/07
C	Ronny Paulino	$.44 M	Acquired in trade w/ SF 3/28/09
1b	Jorge Cantu	$3.5 M	Acquired in trade w/ TB 7/07
2b	Dan Uggla	$5.35M	Selected in Rule V draft '05.
3b	Emilio Bonifacio	$.4 M	Acquired in trade w/ Was 11/08
SS	Hanley Ramirez	$5.5 M	Acquired in trade w/ Bos 11/05. Signed extension 5/08
LF	Jeremy Hermida	$2.25M	Drafted #11 overall 2002
CF	Cameron Maybin	$.4 M	Acquired in trade w/ Det 12/07
RF	Cody Ross	$2.25M	Contract purchased from Cin 5/2006
Inf	West Helms	$1.9 M	Acquired in trade w/ Phi 4/08. Signed extension 10/08
Inf	Andy Gonzalez	$.39M	Signed as FA 1/13/09
Of	Ross Gload	$1.9 M	Acquired in trade w/ KC 4/09
UT	Alfredo Amezaga	$1.3 M	Claimed off waivers from Col 4/05
SP	Ricky Nolasco	$2.4 M	Drafted #11 overall 2002
SP	Josh Johnson	$1.4 M	Drafted 4th rd 2002
SP	Chris Volstad	$.4 M	Drafted #16 overall 2005
SP	Anibal Sanchez	$.4 M	Acquired in trade w/ Bos 11/05
SP	Andrew Miller	$5.4 M	Acquired in trade w/ Det 12/07
Cl	Matt Lindstrom	$.41 M	Acquired in trade w/ NYM 11/06
SU	Leo Nunez	$.415M	Acquired in trade w/ KC 10/08
RP	Scott Proctor	$.75M	Signed as FA 1/5/08
RP	Renyel Pinto	$.404M	Acquired in trade w/ ChC 12/7/05
RP	Logan Kensing	$.66 M	Drafted 2nd rd 2003
RP	Dan Meyer	$.4 M	Claimed off waivers from Oak 11/08
RP	Hayden Penn	$.4 M	Acquired in trade w/ Bal 4/1/09

Payroll obligations to former players: none

Say hello to: Ross Gload, Emilio Bonifacio, Wes Helms, Hayden Penn, Dan Meyer, Leo Nunez, Ronny Paulino, Jose Ceda

Wave goodbye: Mike Jacobs, Kevin Gregg, Scott Olsen, Josh Willingham, Arthur Rhodes, Matt Treanor, Mark Hednrickson, Joe Nelson, Sergio Mitre

Rookies: Emilio Bonifacio, Gaby Sanchez, Cameron Maybin

Non-Roster Invitees to Watch: Kiko Calero

Potential breakout: Cameron Maybin

Welcome to Earth: Chris Volstad, Jorge Cantú

Likely to rebound: Hanley Ramirez (kidding), Josh Johnson, Jeremy Hermida

Strengths: There is a lot of power in this lineup

Weaknesses: Infield defense is iffy unless last season’s improvements from Ramirez and Uggla were for real

Optimal batting lineup (position, name, bats, Avg/OBP/Slg, HR, SB, EqA):

3b Bonifacio B  .248/.305/.344  0, 6  .231

LF Hermida L  .249/.323/.406  17, 6  .260

SS Ramirez R  .301/.400/.540  33, 35  .324

2b Uggla R  .260/.360/.514  32, 5  .299

1b Cantú R  .277/.327/.481  29, 6  .280

CF Maybin R

Rf Ross R  .260/.316/.488  22, 6  .280

C Baker L  .299/.392/.447  5, 0  .301

Prediction: 4th place NL East.