2012 MLB Preview: NL East

Now that my NCAA bracket filled with scratch marks and red ink I think it's time to move on to some baseball.  Each year I do a preseason preview for every team and this year will be no different.

The National League East is likely the most improved division in baseball.  They didn't lose any high profile players to other divisions and the one big name that changed teams stayed in the division (Jose Reyes).  Several key players are coming back from injury and there's a lot of young talent that's beginning to mature. As a Braves fan I'm concerned their model for success won't work unless they make some changes but as a baseball fan it's great to see Washington and Miami are no longer pushovers.  Philadelphia is still the team to beat but they're pretty beat up right now making this officially a four team race for two (or three?) spots.

Atlanta Braves

2011 Record: 89-73

2012 Estimated Team Salary: $101.8 million
Highest Paid Player: Chipper Jones - $13 million
Best Player: Brian McCann has been an All-Star every full season he's played.
Best Pitcher: Tommy Hanson made strides towards becoming an ace last season.  If he's over the shoulder woes he'll be the man.
Say Hello To: Tyler Pastornicky SS, Drew Sutton INF
Wave Goodbye: Alex Gonzalez SS (Mil), Derek Lowe SP (Cle), George Sherrill RP (Sea), Scott Linebrink RP (StL), Brooks Conrad INF (Mil), Nate McLouth OF (Pit)
Biggest Questions:
1. Was standing pat the right move? The Braves didn't add a single player via free agency or trade this offseason.  The club is hoping one of Tyler Pastornicky or Andrelton Simmons will claim the shortstop job with a strong spring now that Alex Gonzalez has taken his .290 OBP to Milwaukee.

2. Is there enough offense to make the playoffs?  One of the reasons Atlanta didn't make any moves is because they believe the poor seasons of Jason Heyward, Martin Prado, and the first half from Dan Uggla were aberrations. They'll also get a full season from Michael Bourn who will provide an upgrade in center field.  A new hitting coach was hired as insurance for these guys.

3. Will this team be able to overcome injuries?  Everyone, even Jones himself, acknowledges Chipper cannot play a full season anymore (he's already being out 3 weeks).  If someone like Heyward and/or like Uggla have to miss extended time how will the team be able to cope?  The losses of Conrad and McLouth make the bench weaker than last season and put an enormous strain on the starters to stay healthy.

Expectations: I think the offense will be better than last season but the bullpen will take small step back. They'll be in the wild card race all year but in the end will fall just short unless they make a move at the deadline.

The Braves goal this year will be to win one last time
for Chipper.  They weren't able to do it for Bobby Cox so
I'm not optimistic this will end any differently.

Probable Opening day lineup:

1. Bourn CF

2. Prado 3B

3. McCann C

4. Uggla 2B
5. Freeman 1B

6. Heyward RF

7. Hinske LF

8. Pastornicky SS

Probable Rotation/Closer
1. Hanson
2. Minor
3. Beachy
4. Jurrjens
5. Medlen

Cl: Kimbrel

2011 MLB Predictions: NL East

 David Wright believes his Lord Helmet can save him from the Schwartz as well as concussions.

Now it's time for the NL East.  The Phillies seem to be the champion on paper but let's take a deeper look.

Philadelphia Phillies
Best Player: Chase Utley but we don't know how long he'll be out. After Utley it's probably Ryan Howard.
Best Pitcher: Roy Halladay is the obvious answer here.
Biggest off-season move:  Adding Cliff Lee shocked everyone.
Biggest off-season loss: Jayson Werth was the team's third best hitter and was a good defensive outfielder.
Biggest Questions:
1. When will Chase Utley return? No one is certain if he'll be back in May or if it will be at the All-Star break. The Phillies may not need him to make the playoffs but winning the World Series will be an uphill climb without him.
2. How good is the rotation? Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt are four of the top twenty five pitchers in baseball. If no injuries beset the staff the offense won't need to be nearly as powerful as it has been in recent seasons.
3. Is Dominic Brown ready to be an impact player?  The Phillies don't need the rookie to be an all-star but with Utley hurt and Werth gone there is a void on offense.  Brown was the top hitting prospect last season but many scouts worry the team is too left-handed with him in the lineup.
Expectations: This is a World Series contender.  Anything short of reaching the Series will likely be seen as a disappointment.
Opening day lineup:
1. Victorino CF
2. Polanco 3B
3. Rollins SS
4. Howard 1B
5. Ibanez LF
6. Francisco RF
7. Ruiz C
8. Valdez 2B
SP Roy Halladay

2010 New York Mets team preview

2009 Record: 70-92   .432

Run Differential: -86

The Mets of 2007 and 2008 had historic collapses in September which cost them not only the division title but also a spot in the playoffs.  The 2009 Mets were determined not to let this happen again...so they finished 22 games under .500 to spare the fans the suspense.  The season began with the team affected by the Bernie Madoff investment scandal.  Although owner Fred Wilpon denied reports that team finances would be affected, it was known he was a major investor.  Also, the brand new home stadium, CitiField, nearly changed names as the media demanded they forfeit their licensing agreement.  But really these two public relations hits were mild compared to what would happen over the course of the season.  The following starters spent significant time on the disabled list last season: Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, Johan Santana, Oliver Perez, and JJ Putz.  Things were so bad GM Omar Minaya traded for Jeff Francoeur because "he's a guy who plays everyday."  The rash of injuries was so fierce the team went from being a legitimate playoff contender to having the league's worst offense.  I think that sums it up pretty well.

It seems that 2010 is picking up where 2009 left off.

Season Preview: New York Mets

2008 Record: 89-73  .549

Run differential: +84 (3^rd)

2008 payroll: $138,293,378 

Last season the Mets were determined to put their epic collapse of 2006 behind them.  But it took them a little while to find their groove as they struggled to a 40-42 after the first three months.  But the Mets rebounded by going 18-8 in July.  They even went 11-7 vs the Phillies.  Unfortunately for Met fans going 13-12 in September and losing on the season’s final day allowed the Phillies to win the division and Milwaukee to squeak past them for the Wild Card.

Much scrutiny lay upon their bullpen’s inability to hold leads down the stretch so once the offseason began GM Omar Minaya decided do a complete overhaul it up by signing KRod and trading for JJ Putz and groundball machine Sean Green.  What Met fans should really be concerned about is the rest of the lineup.  Yes, the Mets finished 2^nd in the NL in runs scored last year but a team with David Wright, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, and Carlos Delgado should have a GREAT offense not a good one.  That speaks volumes for the lack of production the team gets from C, 2b, LF, and RF.  Considering the Mets did nothing to address these issues, fans shouldn’t be expecting this team to be much better than last season. 

Likely opening day roster:

Pos.	Name	Salary	How Acquired
C	Brian Schneider	$4.9 M	Acquired in trade w/ Was 11/30/07
C	Ramon Castro	$2.5 M	Signed as FA 12/04. Resigned 11/16/2007
1b	Carlos Delgado	$12 M	Acquired in trade w/ Fla 11/05. NYM picked up ‘09 option 10/08
2b	Luis Castillo	$6 M	Acquired in trade w/ Min 7/30/07.  Resigned 11/19/2007
3b	David Wright	$7.5 M	Drafted 2001 #38 overall.
SS	José Reyes	$5.75 M	Signed as amateur FA 2000 from D.R.
LF	Danny Murphy	$.390 M	Drafted 3rd rd 2006
CF	Carlos Beltran	$18.5 M	Signed as FA 1/2005
RF	Ryan Church	$2.8 M	Acquired in trade w/ Was 11/30/07
2b/of	Marlon Anderson	$2.2 M	Acquired in trade w/ Was 8/06. Resigned 11/6/07
Inf	Alex Cora	$2.0 M	Signed as FA 1/22/09
Of	Jeremy Reed	$.925 M	Acquired in trade w/ Sea 12/10/08
Of	Fernando Tatís	$1.7 M	Signed as FA 1/8/08. Resigned 10/30/08
SP	Johan Santana	$20 M	Acquired in trade w/ Min 2/2/08
SP	John Maine	$2.6 M	Drafted 6th rd 2002
SP	Oliver Perez	$12 M	Acquired in trade w/ Pit 7/31/06. Resigned 2/2/09
SP	Mike Pelfrey	$5.25 M	Drafted 2005 #9 overall
SP	Tim Redding	$2.25 M	Signed as FA 1/9/09
Cl	Francisco Rodríguez	$11.5 M	Signed as FA 12/9/08
Setup	JJ Putz	$5.0 M	Acquired in trade w/ Sea 12/10/08
RP	Pedrio Feliciano	$1.61 M	Signed as FA from Japan 12/05
RP	Sean Green	$.405 M	Acquired in trade w/ Sea 12/10/08
RP	Duaner Sanchez	$1.69 M	Acquired in trade w/ LA 1/4/06
RP	Jonathon Niese	$.390 M	Drafted 7th rd 2005
RP	Darren O’Day	$.390 M	Selected in Rule V draft 12/11/08

Say hello to: Francisco Rodriguez, JJ Putz, Sean Green, Connor Robertson, Jeremy Reed, Tim Redding, Alex Cora

Wave goodbye: Scott Schoenweis, Joe Smith, Aaron Heilman, Endy Chavez, Jason Vargas, Pedro Martinez, Moises Alou

Rookies: Jonathon Niese, Danny Murphy

Potential breakout: Sean Green

Welcome to Earth: Fernando Tatis.  While I think he's a solid platoon player, don't expect a .299 EqA again

Non Roster Invitees to watch:  Livan Hernandez, Freddy Garcia, Tony Armas, Bobby Kielty, José Valentín

Strenghts: Defense up the middle. Three of the best young players in the NL

Weaknesses: Not a lot of offense at C, 2b, LF.  Ryan Church is a platoon player playing everyday.

Improvements: Bullpen!

Payroll obligations to former players: Scott Schoenweis ($1.6M)

Optimal batting lineup (position, name, bats, Avg/OBP/SLG, HR, SB, EqA)

SS Reyes B   .297/.358/.475  16, 56  .294

CF Beltran B  .284/.376/.500  27, 25, .307

3B Wright R  .302/.390/.534  33, 15, .320

1B Delgado L  .271/.353/.518  38, 1, .296

RF Church L  .276/.346/.439  12, 2, .274

LF Tatis/Murphy* R/L  .297/.369/.484  11, 3, .299

2B Castillo B  .245/.355/.305  3, 17, .257

C  Schneider R  .257/.339/.367  9, 0, .252

*Tatis stats only

Prediction: 1st place NL East

Monday Meanderings

• I think everyone was sick to their stomach when they heard the ARod news.  The question now is, how will the fans react?  Here's what Peter Gammons had to say after the interview.
• Still, some people aren't convinced he's being honest. 
• Breathe easy Cub fans.  The Cardinals made a surprising move today.  If LaRussa didn't want him to be the starter couldn't he just be a backup?  After all he is better than Brendan Ryan.
• Sometimes it's the moves you don't make that allow you to win.  The Twins should ignore that catch phrase and sign their guy.  The AL Central is going to be a tight race and this guy could probably put them over the top.
• Speaking of tight races, this news has to frustrate Rays fans.
• Looks like the Mets are happy with their team.  Sorry Manny but it looks like Omar Minaya doesn't want the headache.

Blockbuster sends 12 packing

There was a pretty big trade last night.  As a Braves fan I'm sick and as a Cleveland supporter and a little befuddled.  Here's a quick rundown of each team's transaction starting with the middleman:

Cleveland sends OF Franklin Gutierrez to Seattle for RP Joe Smith and 2b Luis Valbuena 

Gutierrez represents a nice little lefty masher while playing good defense in both corners and center.  This past season was his first real chance to play everyday and he did not live up to expectations.  Cleveland already had Ben Francisco and Shin -Soo Choo so one had to move. I think Cleveland chose the right guy.  

Valbuena is a nice little gamble for 2b.  He gets on base at a fair clip and has some nice doubles power.  He's got the body of Carlos Baerga though, so if he doesn't stay in shape he might lose nearly all his value.

Joe Smith is a nifty sidearming righty that fits in well in a pen already stocked with goodies. Cleveland now has a situational righty to slide in late innings enabling Rafael Perez and Rafael Betancourt to keep their multi-inning roles.  Once Kerry Wood finalizes his deal this bullpen will be set.  It will also be the best in baseball.

Seattle traded RP JJ Putz, RP Sean Green, and OF Jeremy Reed to NY Mets and 2b Luis Valbuena to Cleveland for OF Endy Chavez, RHP Aaron Heilman, RHP prospect Maikel Cleto, 1b prospect Mike Carp, LHP Jason Vargas, OF Ezequiel Carrera, and OF Franklin Gutierrez.

The Mariners get a whopping seven players here.  I'll sort through as fast as I can.

Losing Putz means relatively little to a team that is not in contention.  Green was a nice reliever that had some value but he can be replaced also.

For Seattle Francisco is the guy that made this deal work.  He'll turn 26 in spring so his potential is just now starting to show.  Plays very good defense and is a superb baserunner.  There is some power potential but it seems likely he'll stay a doubles hitter accompanied by a lot of triples as long as his speed holds up.  It remains to be seen if he plays center or left but I have a feeling Seattle puts him in center to see if he can handle it (which he will).  As a fantasy player my eye is on him.

Endy Chavez should be used as a fourth outfielder since his hitting skills are weak at best.  He's another excellent defender who's probably best known for his catch in game 7 of the 2006 NLCS than anything else.

Aaron Heilman is a disgruntled reliever who told the Mets to start him or trade him.  Well, Aaron, you got your wish.  If used as a starter it will be a disaster since he only has two decent pitches and a pretty significant platoon split. Should ably fill the vacancy left by Sean Green.

Vargas is a bit of an enigma to me.  He destroyed the lower minors and showed loads of potential in AA, but once he hit AAA the wheels came off.  Maybe he can't hack it as a starter.  Some work with the pitching coaches should turn him into a valuable reliever.

Ezekiel Carrera is all wheels, Mike Carp looks like a lefty hitting Ryan Garko, and Maikel Cleto is only 19 so there's still time for him to turn into a dominating closer.  

NY Mets traded OF Endy Chavez, OF Ezequiel Carrera, RP Aaron Heilman, RP Maikel Cleto, LHP Jason Vargas, 1b Mike Carp, and to Seattle and RP Joe Smith to Cleveland for RP JJ Putz, RP Sean Green, and OF Jeremy Reed.

JJ Putz gives the Mets a dominating reliever (when healthy) that's actually better than KRod.  He has averaged more than 11 strikeouts per 9 innings over the last three seasons and, if memory serves me correctly, saved 35 consecutive games in 2007.  

Sean Green is a sinkerballing reliever whose biggest concern is that Luis Castillo remembers how to play defense.  Green has solid control and to use the ever popular phrase "a move to the National League can only help."

Jeremy Reed takes Endy Chavez's place as 4th outfielder/late inning defensive replacement.  This guy was a hot prospect but never developed power or mastered the strike zone.

Verdict:  Surprisingly, I really like what this deal does for the Indians.  The AL Central is a division completely up for grabs this season and little moves like this one might be difference makers.  Seattle gets to restock the the upper levels of their minor league system and gets to embark on a risk-free experiment known as Franklin Gutierrez.  But really, let's not fool ourselves.  The team with the biggest improvement from this trade is the Mets.  Reed and Green essentially replace two guys they were traded for (and are younger) while Putz improves them by 2-3 wins.  Maybe as much as 5 if you look at the guys he replaced.  As a Braves fan I just threw up a little.