2013-14 Conference Predictions

Holiday tournaments are finished and opportunities for non-conference quality wins are waning.  That means whether we realize it or not, the NCAA Tournament is already taking shape.  A lot of teams changed conferences causing a dramatic reshuffling of the college basketball landscape.  The Big East split into two conferences - the Big East and the American Athletic Conference.  The Big Ten will add two teams next year while the ACC loses Maryland but gains Louisville.  All of this likely means we're in for a unique year in college basketball.  Here's a look at what each of the major conferences looks like so far.

ACC
Media's conference champ: Duke
My prediction: North Carolina
Likely Tournament Teams: North Carolina, Duke, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Virginia

Can Jabari Parker lead Duke to a Final Four?
First he'll need to get his team to the top of the ACC.

Need a few breaks: Florida State, Clemson, Notre Dame
Wait 'til Next Year: Maryland, North Carolina State, Wake Forest, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Miami, Georgia Tech
The conference got off to a pretty rough start this season but earned a tie in the BigTen/ACC Challenge.  North Carolina has a couple of baffling losses (Belmont, UAB) but also beat Louisville and Michigan State giving me confidence they'll emerge as the conference's best team at the end of the year.  Duke, Syracuse, and Pitt all look strong in their own rights while Virginia is well positioned despite their loss at Green Bay.

March 10th, 2012 Madness (updated)

The Buffaloes have found greener pastures in the Pac 12 - ask Nebraska how their
move to the BIG went. Will they finish their impressive run to the conference tournament
final today and secure an automatic bid?

This is the final weekend before the bracket is announced. I've done a comprehensive check of all the teams who hope to avoid the NIT and play for the national title.  Here are a few notes followed by how everything looks at 1:30 pm today.

• Texas' win over Iowa St. pushes them into the "Should be In" category.  Despite a 1-8 record vs. the top 25, they're 48 in RPI meaning the committee will likely select them as an at-large team.
• The lack of upsets in the mid-majors means the bubble remains large (or soft in you prefer ESPN's lingo) enough for multiple power conference bubble teams to qualify.  West Virginia and Seton Hall send their thanks.
• It looks like the Pac 12 will only get two bids this year. Cal is a lock and with Arizona and Colorado playing in the conference tournament, the winner will likely steal a bid and push Washington off the bubble.
• As much as I'd like to see Drexel (27-6) and Iona (25-7) in the tournament there's just a noticeable lack of good wins for both programs.  I can see Drexel squeaking in but Iona's loss in the second round if their conference tournament was probably a death blow.
• I forgot to include Long Beach St. in the bubble team section earlier.  They are definitely in the hunt for an at-large bid if they fail to win their championship game tonight. Win, however, and the point is moot.
• Kentucky's win today assured them of getting the number one seed in the Louisville region.  I don't care who they play, getting that kind of advantage in the first weekend's games makes them a lock for the Sweet 16.
• Xavier's big win over St. Louis should be enough to get them in.  They've got quality wins but were on the bubble thanks to losing five out of six games after their brawl with Cincinnati.
• By advancing to the championship game of the Big Ten Tournament, Michigan St. stays in the hunt for a number one seed.  I've got them #5 on the S-curve right now behind Kansas and just ahead of Missouri.  These three teams are so tightly bunched right now that their final game will determine how they're seeded.
• Ohio St.'s win over Michigan locks them up at a 2 seed.  Duke's loss means they may have fallen behind Ohio St. on the S-curve and if OSU wins tomorrow they'll definitely be ahead of the Blue Devils.
• Bubble teams everywhere let out a sigh of relief when Vanderbilt finished off Ole Miss today.  That's another potential bubble spot that remains open for an at-large team.
• Keep your eye on the Pac 12 tonight.  Whichever team wins is going dancing and the loser likely goes to the NIT.

Updated at 6:25pm.

Conference Power Rankings: Big East

It's no secret the Sportstemps are partial to the happenings in the Midwest and tend to neglect items that happen on the coasts.  While the watching games on the West Coast can be a bit inconvenient due to scheduling, East Coast games seem to be on whenever you're flipping through the channels.  The world's biggest sports network will pummel the average American with commercials advertising mediocre matchups just because they happen close to home.  Let Dick Vitale continue to praise the awesomeness of the ACC just because he was buds with Jimmy V and Dean Smith.  And let Doug Gottlieb continue to pretend he knows all just because.  That being said, there is some good basketball being played out east and just because we don't have a horse in the race doesn't mean we don't follow what's going on.
I've decided to take a break from the Big Ten this week and start a run-down of the major conferences to provide a quick overview of how each team is doing and where they stand in relation to their league-mates.  We'll start with one of ESPN's favorites: the Big East.

The Sportstemps agree there's good bball
in the Big East but regardless of what ESPN
would have you believe, DePaul, USF, and Rutgers still
remain members of the conference meaning the
Big East also contains the Big Least of roundball.

1. Syracuse 16-0 (3-0) - A perfect 15-0 record to go along with a more than convincing win over Seton Hall.  This is a team whose biggest road bump to an undefeated January will be a home match with Marquette.  

NCAA Conference Power Rankings: Final list of 2011

In January I'll begin doing the Power 16 and soon my NCAATournament predictions while continuing the mid-major rankings.  I've been asked to do another conference power ranking this month and I think now is a good time.  This way we can kind of see how all the conferences stack up with each other before conference play really swings into full gear.

Matt Carlino's transfer from UCLA has been a
revelation for BYU and the entire WCC.

1. Big Ten - The entire conference enjoyed non-conference play while picking up numerous quality wins including Kentucky and Duke.  Have eight or nine teams with legitimate NCAA Tournament aspirations while Ohio St. may be the best team in the country.  Non-conference record: 123-28.
2. Big 12 - There's only 10 teams in the Big 12 this year and with the losses of Nebraska and Colorado the conference as a whole is improved.  Kansas, Baylor, and Missouri look like potential Final Four teams.  Non-conferenc record: 91-24.

NCAA Basketball: Conference Predictions

The non-conference portion of everyone's schedules draw to a close this week.  After a weekend off for the holidays, the NCAA basketball season really gets started with conference play.  Some conferences will sort themselves out quickly while others may not ever (see Pac 10 in 2009) have a clear-cut order.  One thing is sure: conference play is where the majority of teams build their resume for postseason qualification.  A strong showing in January and February can override a ghastly start in November.  With the NCAA Tournament now selecting 68 teams to the foray, there's an extra four bubble spots to be won. Below I've gone through all the "Power" conferences and projected how things will shake out.

ACC
Conference Champ: North Carolina
Likely Tournament Teams: Duke, Virginia, Florida St.
Need a few breaks: Clemson, Virginia Tech,  Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina St.
Wait til Next Year: Maryland, Wake Forest, Boston College
The two things that stick out the most to me about the ACC are 1) the conference isn't nearly as good as everyone thinks it is and 2) the only team capable of winning a championship is North Carolina.  Virginia has been a pleasant surprise and Florida St. is consistently a tournament team.  The middle of the conference will have a couple of teams receive bubble interest but I doubt more than five schools make the tournament with four the most likely outcome.

Preseason Conference Power Rankings

Obviously these rankings are compiled purely on my best guesses on what will happen during the season.  Once the games begin and we have some statistical evidence, my opinions will change. Basically, don’t put too much stock into these. Let the games begin!

1.       Big East - Every year this conference sends at least eight teams to the tournament. I expect that to hold true to form in 2012 with multiple teams vying for a 1 or 2 seed.

2.       Big 12 – No more Nebraska! No more Colorado! Really, these two schools weren’t that bad last year but they’re not tournament contenders either.  A ten team conference that sends five or six schools dancing plus a national title contender in Kansas make this conference look good.

3.       Big 10 – The BIG lost a lot of talent after last season but there are some great freshmen on campus.  Six teams will likely go dancing with the possibility of eight come March.

4.       SEC – Last year the SEC was just mediocre.  That’s partly due to it being young. Now Alabama is ranked, Kentucky seems poised to grab a 1 seed, and a few other schools look to join them in the Big Dance.  The divisions remain imbalanced so we’ll have to take it for it’s worth.

5.       Atlantic Coast – This is going to be a down year for the ACC.  Duke and North Carolina look good as usual but the bottom of this conference could be awful.  That’s never a good thing for your Strength of Schedule (SOS).

6.       Atlantic 10 – This conference isn’t really a power conference but it’s no mid-major either.  Xavier and Temple are two excellent programs who will make some noise this year. The middle of the conference appears average so expecting four bids again may be a stretch.

7.      Pac 12 – New additions Utah and Colorado won’t help this year.  This conference has been plagued by mediocrity of late and I’m not sure it’ll be any different in 2012.  Arizona is overrated in my mind while other contenders Washington, UCLA, and Cal all have big time flaws. The Pac12 is helped by its solid second tier.

8.       Missouri Valley – With the supposed reemergence of Creighton, the MVC appears to gaining steam as the top mid-major.  Also worth watching are Wichita St., Indiana St., and UNI.  This conference is always fun to watch; it’s kind of like the Big 10’s little brother in terms of style.

9.       West Coast – This is Gonzaga’s year!  I doubt that to be true but all the previews I’ve read expect a big improvement from last season. St. Mary’s remains very good, but the team that pushes this conference into the top ten is BYU.  That’s a very nice trio.

10.   Mountain West – New Mexico St. and UNLV appear to be the front-runners this year. No BYU will hurt the RPI but Colorado St. is improving and San Diego St. will still be good. Two bids is a safe bet and three won’t be a surprise.

Sorting out the Big East

The Big East is unquestionably the best basketball conference in the country.  It's likely eight and possibly as many as nine teams will be selected to play in the NCAA tournament.  But who are the pretenders and contenders?

Go here for an updated look at the conference standings.  There are currently 7 teams ranked the AP top 25 with an eighth receiving votes.  Here's a quick profile examination of the eleven teams in the conference aspiring for postseason play.

#3 Connecticut: 16-1, 7-1

• Only loss was at home to #12 Georgetown.  
• Record vs RPI top 25: 2-1.  
• RPI: 6
  
• SOS: 34
• Non-conference SOS is 96th

#4 Pittsburgh: 17-1, 5-1

• Only loss @ Louisville
• Record vs RPI top 25: 4-1
• RPI: 2
• SOS: 13
• Is 3-1 on the road

#8 Syracuse: 17-3, 5-2

• Lost vs Cleveland St., @ Georgetown, vs Louisville
• Record vs RPI top 25: 1-2
• RPI: 12
• SOS: 35
• Average over 80 points a game

#9 Louisville 13-3, 5-0

• Lost vs W. Kentucky, Minnesota, UNLV
• Record vs RPI top 25: 1-0
• RPI: 11
• SOS: 12
• Is 3-0 vs teams ranked in ESPN/USA Today top 25

#11 Marquette: 16-2, 6-0

• Lost vs Dayton, vs Tennessee
• Recored vs RPI top 25: 2-1
• RPI: 17
• SOS: 65
• Has yet to play Georgetown, Syracuse, Connecticut, and Notre Dame

#12 Georgetown: 12-5, 3-3

• Lost vs Tennessee, Pittsburgh, @Notre Dame, @ Duke, West Virginia
• Record vs RPI top 25: 3-4
• RPI: 10
• SOS: 1
• The win over Marlyand looks less impressive now but has also defeated Memphis and is the only team do beat UConn

#19 Notre Dame 12-6, 3-4

• Lost vs North Carolina, Ohio St, @ St. John's , @ Louisville, @ Syracuse, Connecticut
• Record vs RPI top 25: 1-5
• RPI: 66
• SOS: 169
• 9-1 at home, 2-3 on the road, 1-2 on neutral court

#20 Villanova: 15-4, 3-3

• Lost vs Texas, @ Marquette, @ Louisville, Connecticut
• Record vs RPI top 25: 0-3
• RPI: 27
• SOS: 39
• Only 2 of 6 conference games have been at home thus far

NR West Virginia: 14-4, 3-2

• Lost vs Kentucky, vs Davidson, vs Connecticut, @ Marquette
• Record vs RPI top 25: 2-2
• RPI: 14
• SOS: 26
• 3-2 on neutral courts 

NR Providence: 13-6, 5-2

• Lost vs Northeastern, Baylor, St. Mary's, Boston College, @ Georgetown, vs Marquette
• Record vs RPI top 25: 0-3
• RPI: 73
• SOS: 77
• Five of their losses are vs teams that will make the tournament but eventually you have to beat someone good to prove you belong.  Their best win thus far is vs Cincinnati.

NR Cincinnati: 13-7, 3-4

• Lost vs Florida St, Xavier, @ Memphis, @ Marquette, Providence, Connecticut, @ Providence
• Record vs RPI top 25: 0-5
• RPI: 57
• SOS: 36
• They have the same problem as Providence except they've had more chances to beat a top 25 team.

With this information here is how I rank them:

1. Connecticut
2. Pittsburgh
3. Louisville
4. Georgetown
5. Syracuse
6. West Virginia
7. Marquette
8. Notre Dame
9. Villanova
10. Providence
11. Cincinnati