Conference Power Rankings: West Coast Conference

Have you ever been home late on a Saturday night and turned the channel over to ESPN2 or ESPNU and seen some college basketball being played in what looked to be a high school gym? Odds are you were watching a West Coast Conference game. The WCC is comprised of nine small private schools - most of which do not have football - with strong religious affiliations. Gonzaga is the most well known to the casual basketball fan. After all, they've made 13 straight NCAA Tournament appearances winning at least once in ten of those years.
Gonzaga's not the only school to make an NCAA appearance during this run, either.  Here's a quick rundown of who has qualified out of the WCC since 1999:

Year	Schools (seed)	Year	Schools (seed)
1999	Gonzaga (10)	2006	Gonzaga (3)
2000	Gonzaga (10), Pepperdine (11)	2007	Gonzaga (10)
2001	Gonzaga (12)	2008	Gonzaga (7), St. Mary's (10), San Diego (13)
2002	Gonzaga (6), Pepperdine (10)	2009	Gonzaga (4)
2003	Gonzaga (9), San Diego (13)	2010	Gonzaga (8), St. Mary's (10)
2004	Gonzaga (2)	2011	Gonzaga (11)
2005	Gonzaga (3), St. Mary's (10)

As the chart shows, six times in the past thirteen years the WCC has sent multiple schools to the Big Dance. Not bad for a mostly obscure conference relegated to playing Saturday night games on the little brother channels of the ESPN network.  Prior to this season the WCC was an eight-member conference but newcomer BYU (basketball only) adds some clout to the hardwood.  The WCC isn't as deep as the Mountain West but St. Mary's and Gonzaga present challenges just the same.  Last year the Cougars earned a three seed and while that's not going to happen this year it's not unreasonable to think that BYU makes this a three-bid league.  So the next time you're flipping through the channels in the middle of the night and you see a couple of WCC schools battling it out stay a while and take it in.  There's some pretty good basketball out there.

Kevin Pangos looks to lead Gonzaga to an incredible
14th straight NCAA Tournament appearance.

Now on to the Power Rankings:

1. St. Mary's 14-2 (3-0) - How impressive was St. Mary's victory over BYU?  According to kenpom.com, BYU still ranks 30th in the nation in defensive efficiency even after giving up 98 points to the Gaels. That's some offense.
2. Gonzaga 12-2 (2-0) - The Zags continue to prove that the road to a WCC conference crown goes through Spokane. A 39 point victory over Portland was a great way to start the conference season.
3. BYU 13-4 (2-1) - BYU got a reality check when they visited St. Mary's last week. The best win on their schedule is still Oregon so they'll need to beat one of the top dogs to secure an at-large berth.
4. Loyola Marymount 8-7 (1-1) - Loyola played BYU tough and has a couple of nice wins against UCLA and St. Louis but there is a clear divide between #3 and the rest of the conference.
5. Pepperdine 7-7 (1-2) - Pepperdine had people believing they could be a spoiler in the WCC until they lost by 29 to St. Mary's. Losing badly at Gonzaga may even hurt their chances of a CBI invite.
6. Santa Clara 8-6 (0-1) - Thursday night's loss was not the way the Broncos wanted to start the year. A trip to Spokane is next meaning Santa Clara is likely going to be staring 0-2 in the face. This team is better than that and I expect they'll get their act together and make a push for fourth place.
7. San Francisco 10-6 (0-2) - San Francisco continues to play nobody in the non-conference schedule which probably hurts them when they run into the likes of Gonzaga/St. Mary's/BYU.  They may be the fourth best team in the conference or the 8th best.  It's too early to really tell but 0-2 puts you closer to last than first.
8. San Diego 5-9 (0-2) - San Diego's best win to this point is Maine and only two of their losses are by single digits.
9. Portland 4-11 (1-1) - Portland has played a respectable schedule with few cupcakes but no real world beaters either.  With only three wins they're stuck in the basement though they're possibly better than San Diego.

NCAA Conference Power Rankings: Final list of 2011

In January I'll begin doing the Power 16 and soon my NCAATournament predictions while continuing the mid-major rankings.  I've been asked to do another conference power ranking this month and I think now is a good time.  This way we can kind of see how all the conferences stack up with each other before conference play really swings into full gear.

Matt Carlino's transfer from UCLA has been a
revelation for BYU and the entire WCC.

1. Big Ten - The entire conference enjoyed non-conference play while picking up numerous quality wins including Kentucky and Duke.  Have eight or nine teams with legitimate NCAA Tournament aspirations while Ohio St. may be the best team in the country.  Non-conference record: 123-28.
2. Big 12 - There's only 10 teams in the Big 12 this year and with the losses of Nebraska and Colorado the conference as a whole is improved.  Kansas, Baylor, and Missouri look like potential Final Four teams.  Non-conferenc record: 91-24.

NCAA Basketball: Mid-Major Conference Predictions

We've gotten some decent traffic on the site when putting a new post up about mid-majors.  As a follow up to yesterday's post discussing my conference predictions and NCAA Tournament predictions, I've construed a similar post for the most successful mid-majors.  Take a look below:

Colonial Athletic Association

Conference Champ: VCU

Other contenders: George Mason, Georgia St., Old Dominion, Drexel

Multiple Bids?: 50%

We all remember what VCU did last season and though they lost several starters they appear to be the best team.  Georgia St. and George Mason are also right there and it's anybody's guess who wins the league. Based on the success of this conference in past NCAA Tournaments I could see a bubble team getting the benefit of the doubt on Selection Sunday.

Horizon League

Conference Champ: Cleveland St.

Other contenders: Milwaukee, Butler, Valparaiso.

Multiple Bids?: 25%

Cleveland St's loss to South Florida may prevent them from earning an at-large bid if they fail to win their conference tournament.  Still, they've looked the best in the early going and remain my pick to win their league.  Milwaukee looks to be their biggest challenger but I refuse to discount Butler after their success the last two seasons.  Valpo may be a stretch but have already beaten Butler to start the conference season.

Preseason Conference Power Rankings

Obviously these rankings are compiled purely on my best guesses on what will happen during the season.  Once the games begin and we have some statistical evidence, my opinions will change. Basically, don’t put too much stock into these. Let the games begin!

1.       Big East - Every year this conference sends at least eight teams to the tournament. I expect that to hold true to form in 2012 with multiple teams vying for a 1 or 2 seed.

2.       Big 12 – No more Nebraska! No more Colorado! Really, these two schools weren’t that bad last year but they’re not tournament contenders either.  A ten team conference that sends five or six schools dancing plus a national title contender in Kansas make this conference look good.

3.       Big 10 – The BIG lost a lot of talent after last season but there are some great freshmen on campus.  Six teams will likely go dancing with the possibility of eight come March.

4.       SEC – Last year the SEC was just mediocre.  That’s partly due to it being young. Now Alabama is ranked, Kentucky seems poised to grab a 1 seed, and a few other schools look to join them in the Big Dance.  The divisions remain imbalanced so we’ll have to take it for it’s worth.

5.       Atlantic Coast – This is going to be a down year for the ACC.  Duke and North Carolina look good as usual but the bottom of this conference could be awful.  That’s never a good thing for your Strength of Schedule (SOS).

6.       Atlantic 10 – This conference isn’t really a power conference but it’s no mid-major either.  Xavier and Temple are two excellent programs who will make some noise this year. The middle of the conference appears average so expecting four bids again may be a stretch.

7.      Pac 12 – New additions Utah and Colorado won’t help this year.  This conference has been plagued by mediocrity of late and I’m not sure it’ll be any different in 2012.  Arizona is overrated in my mind while other contenders Washington, UCLA, and Cal all have big time flaws. The Pac12 is helped by its solid second tier.

8.       Missouri Valley – With the supposed reemergence of Creighton, the MVC appears to gaining steam as the top mid-major.  Also worth watching are Wichita St., Indiana St., and UNI.  This conference is always fun to watch; it’s kind of like the Big 10’s little brother in terms of style.

9.       West Coast – This is Gonzaga’s year!  I doubt that to be true but all the previews I’ve read expect a big improvement from last season. St. Mary’s remains very good, but the team that pushes this conference into the top ten is BYU.  That’s a very nice trio.

10.   Mountain West – New Mexico St. and UNLV appear to be the front-runners this year. No BYU will hurt the RPI but Colorado St. is improving and San Diego St. will still be good. Two bids is a safe bet and three won’t be a surprise.