March 10th, 2012 Madness (updated)

The Buffaloes have found greener pastures in the Pac 12 - ask Nebraska how their
move to the BIG went. Will they finish their impressive run to the conference tournament
final today and secure an automatic bid?

This is the final weekend before the bracket is announced. I've done a comprehensive check of all the teams who hope to avoid the NIT and play for the national title.  Here are a few notes followed by how everything looks at 1:30 pm today.

• Texas' win over Iowa St. pushes them into the "Should be In" category.  Despite a 1-8 record vs. the top 25, they're 48 in RPI meaning the committee will likely select them as an at-large team.
• The lack of upsets in the mid-majors means the bubble remains large (or soft in you prefer ESPN's lingo) enough for multiple power conference bubble teams to qualify.  West Virginia and Seton Hall send their thanks.
• It looks like the Pac 12 will only get two bids this year. Cal is a lock and with Arizona and Colorado playing in the conference tournament, the winner will likely steal a bid and push Washington off the bubble.
• As much as I'd like to see Drexel (27-6) and Iona (25-7) in the tournament there's just a noticeable lack of good wins for both programs.  I can see Drexel squeaking in but Iona's loss in the second round if their conference tournament was probably a death blow.
• I forgot to include Long Beach St. in the bubble team section earlier.  They are definitely in the hunt for an at-large bid if they fail to win their championship game tonight. Win, however, and the point is moot.
• Kentucky's win today assured them of getting the number one seed in the Louisville region.  I don't care who they play, getting that kind of advantage in the first weekend's games makes them a lock for the Sweet 16.
• Xavier's big win over St. Louis should be enough to get them in.  They've got quality wins but were on the bubble thanks to losing five out of six games after their brawl with Cincinnati.
• By advancing to the championship game of the Big Ten Tournament, Michigan St. stays in the hunt for a number one seed.  I've got them #5 on the S-curve right now behind Kansas and just ahead of Missouri.  These three teams are so tightly bunched right now that their final game will determine how they're seeded.
• Ohio St.'s win over Michigan locks them up at a 2 seed.  Duke's loss means they may have fallen behind Ohio St. on the S-curve and if OSU wins tomorrow they'll definitely be ahead of the Blue Devils.
• Bubble teams everywhere let out a sigh of relief when Vanderbilt finished off Ole Miss today.  That's another potential bubble spot that remains open for an at-large team.
• Keep your eye on the Pac 12 tonight.  Whichever team wins is going dancing and the loser likely goes to the NIT.

Updated at 6:25pm.

NCAA Conference Power Rankings: Final list of 2011

In January I'll begin doing the Power 16 and soon my NCAATournament predictions while continuing the mid-major rankings.  I've been asked to do another conference power ranking this month and I think now is a good time.  This way we can kind of see how all the conferences stack up with each other before conference play really swings into full gear.

Matt Carlino's transfer from UCLA has been a
revelation for BYU and the entire WCC.

1. Big Ten - The entire conference enjoyed non-conference play while picking up numerous quality wins including Kentucky and Duke.  Have eight or nine teams with legitimate NCAA Tournament aspirations while Ohio St. may be the best team in the country.  Non-conference record: 123-28.
2. Big 12 - There's only 10 teams in the Big 12 this year and with the losses of Nebraska and Colorado the conference as a whole is improved.  Kansas, Baylor, and Missouri look like potential Final Four teams.  Non-conferenc record: 91-24.

NCAA Basketball: Conference Predictions

The non-conference portion of everyone's schedules draw to a close this week.  After a weekend off for the holidays, the NCAA basketball season really gets started with conference play.  Some conferences will sort themselves out quickly while others may not ever (see Pac 10 in 2009) have a clear-cut order.  One thing is sure: conference play is where the majority of teams build their resume for postseason qualification.  A strong showing in January and February can override a ghastly start in November.  With the NCAA Tournament now selecting 68 teams to the foray, there's an extra four bubble spots to be won. Below I've gone through all the "Power" conferences and projected how things will shake out.

ACC
Conference Champ: North Carolina
Likely Tournament Teams: Duke, Virginia, Florida St.
Need a few breaks: Clemson, Virginia Tech,  Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina St.
Wait til Next Year: Maryland, Wake Forest, Boston College
The two things that stick out the most to me about the ACC are 1) the conference isn't nearly as good as everyone thinks it is and 2) the only team capable of winning a championship is North Carolina.  Virginia has been a pleasant surprise and Florida St. is consistently a tournament team.  The middle of the conference will have a couple of teams receive bubble interest but I doubt more than five schools make the tournament with four the most likely outcome.

Preseason Conference Power Rankings

Obviously these rankings are compiled purely on my best guesses on what will happen during the season.  Once the games begin and we have some statistical evidence, my opinions will change. Basically, don’t put too much stock into these. Let the games begin!

1.       Big East - Every year this conference sends at least eight teams to the tournament. I expect that to hold true to form in 2012 with multiple teams vying for a 1 or 2 seed.

2.       Big 12 – No more Nebraska! No more Colorado! Really, these two schools weren’t that bad last year but they’re not tournament contenders either.  A ten team conference that sends five or six schools dancing plus a national title contender in Kansas make this conference look good.

3.       Big 10 – The BIG lost a lot of talent after last season but there are some great freshmen on campus.  Six teams will likely go dancing with the possibility of eight come March.

4.       SEC – Last year the SEC was just mediocre.  That’s partly due to it being young. Now Alabama is ranked, Kentucky seems poised to grab a 1 seed, and a few other schools look to join them in the Big Dance.  The divisions remain imbalanced so we’ll have to take it for it’s worth.

5.       Atlantic Coast – This is going to be a down year for the ACC.  Duke and North Carolina look good as usual but the bottom of this conference could be awful.  That’s never a good thing for your Strength of Schedule (SOS).

6.       Atlantic 10 – This conference isn’t really a power conference but it’s no mid-major either.  Xavier and Temple are two excellent programs who will make some noise this year. The middle of the conference appears average so expecting four bids again may be a stretch.

7.      Pac 12 – New additions Utah and Colorado won’t help this year.  This conference has been plagued by mediocrity of late and I’m not sure it’ll be any different in 2012.  Arizona is overrated in my mind while other contenders Washington, UCLA, and Cal all have big time flaws. The Pac12 is helped by its solid second tier.

8.       Missouri Valley – With the supposed reemergence of Creighton, the MVC appears to gaining steam as the top mid-major.  Also worth watching are Wichita St., Indiana St., and UNI.  This conference is always fun to watch; it’s kind of like the Big 10’s little brother in terms of style.

9.       West Coast – This is Gonzaga’s year!  I doubt that to be true but all the previews I’ve read expect a big improvement from last season. St. Mary’s remains very good, but the team that pushes this conference into the top ten is BYU.  That’s a very nice trio.

10.   Mountain West – New Mexico St. and UNLV appear to be the front-runners this year. No BYU will hurt the RPI but Colorado St. is improving and San Diego St. will still be good. Two bids is a safe bet and three won’t be a surprise.

The Big 12

With all the talk of the craziness in the Big Ten, I thought I'd wander a bit and focus on the Big 12. 

If you've been reading the blog (or not) you're aware that Kansas is really good.  You might also have heard since being annointed the #1 team in the country Texas is 2-5.  Unfortunately the rest of the conference has taken a back seat to these noteworthy performances.
Here are the standings as of 2/10/10:

 

	Conf.		Overall
Kansas	23	1	9	0
Kansas St.	19	4	6	3
Texas A&M	17	6	6	3
Missouri	17	6	5	3
Texas	19	5	5	4
Baylor	17	5	4	4
Oklahoma St.	16	7	4	5
Texas Tech	16	7	4	5
Oklahoma	13	10	4	5
Iowa St.	13	10	2	6
Nebraska	13	10	1	7
Colorado	11	12	2	7

 

• Kansas is truly an elite team as they rank second in both adjusted (tempo-free) offense and defense.  They've nearly locked up a one seed and have to be the favorite to earn the number one overall seed.
• Kansas St. now has to be considered the second best team in the conference. With wins over Xavier and on the road at UNLV they have a decent non-conference resume.  If there were still doubters after starting 17-3, taking Kansas in OT should have convinced them this team is for real.  They are currently sitting in the 2-4 seed range.  

Read about the other teams after the jump.