2013 MLB HOF Ballot (Pitchers)

 








Last week I took a look at the hitters so now I'll examine the case for the pitchers on the ballot. While I'll agree my system isn't perfect for starting pitchers, I do believe it's close. I'll work on giving it some tweaks during the year in hopes I can perfect it.

Starting Pitchers - Avg HOFSc = 57.76
Roger Clemens (105.65): You can make an argument that Roger Clemens is the greatest pitcher of all time.  He won seven Cy Young Awards (most), led the league in ERA seven times, strikeouts five times, shutouts six times, and even won an MVP award. His HOFSc of 105.65 just edges out Cy Young (105.35) for the highest ever.  He ranks second all time in career WAR and third for peak. I think we can all agree Roger Clemens was a great pitcher and would be a lock if not for his performance enhancers.  I think he'll get in eventually but I'm not sure how long he'll have to wait.

Jack Morris (44.25): Here we go again. Jack Morris was a good pitcher but every time I evaluate him he falls short of Hall of Fame status.  He won twenty games twice and threw an incredible game in the 1991 World Series.  He also led the league in wild pitches six times.

Aaron Sele (30.70): Sele's an interesting story. When he came to the majors he was seen as the heir apparent to Roger Clemens by Red Sox Nation. When he pitched he was brilliant but injuries kept him off the field quite a bit. I guess management became frustrated by this and traded him to Texas where he promptly won 19 games.  The next two years were both excellent but then his career as an effective major league starting pitcher was pretty much over although he held on to a job for seven more seasons.

David Wells (47.05): Wells was a bit of a journeyman pitcher in the mid 90s until he stumbled upon the Yankees. Once there his career really took off. He set a new career high in wins with 16 in 1997 and threw a perfect game. In 1998 he led the American League in winning percentage by going 18-4. Over the next six seasons he won 76 games and was a legitimate #1 starter. Unfortunately it took him too long to become a productive pitcher though he did manage to hang around until he was 44. A fun character but not quite a hall of famer.

Woody Williams (17.80): Woody Williams made his major league debut in 1993 but it took him until he was in his mid 30s to become an above average pitcher.  By then he was nearly done. He pitched one World Series game and made one all-star team.

Relief Pitchers - Avg HOFSc = 24.18
Roberto Hernandez (13.75): Roberto Hernandez usurped Bobby Thigpen as the White Sox closer in 1992 and held on to the job until the White Flag Trade in 1997.  Despite closing games thru 2002, his days as a shut down reliever ended in 1999 or 2000.

Jose Mesa (13.00): Mesa made his major league debut in 1987 as a starting pitcher and in six games had an ERA over 6.00.  The Orioles then banished him to the minors until 1990 when he came up and made seven starts.  He spent three more seasons as a starter including one in Cleveland before the Indians decided enough was enough and converted him to a closer. What a good decision. In 1995 and 1997 he helped solidify the bullpen of two World Series teams.  After posting a 6.52 ERA with the Phillies in 2003, his career seemed to be over.  Somehow he got another chance in 2004 and was very good again.  He was a good reliever for a long time.

Lee Smith (23.6): While I was growing up, Lee Smith was considered a great closer because everyone assumed he would set the career saves record. He did but I was never convinced he was a great closer (especially when he gave up that home run to Fred McGriff in the all-star game).  Turns out he'd fit right in with the relievers in the Hall of Fame. Personally, I think only two relievers in the hall deserve to be there but that's beside the point. If Smith gets in it won't be a big deal. I'm just not sure he will.

Mike Stanton (11.80): Mike Stanton is second all time in games pitched. The problem with his candidacy is that in 1178 games pitched he threw 1114 innings. Essentially a LOOGY for the majority of his career, Stanton was able to pitch for 19 seasons. I'm not saying LOOGY's are dumb, in fact he's probably the best ever. I just don't see how one can be a legitimate hall of fame candidate.  I'm sure he's a nice guy though.

My Hypothetical Ballot
Each year a voter can vote for up to ten (10) players on their ballot.  Most years I feel only three or four are deserving but there's starting to be some serious back log due to the writers newfound morality.  If I had a vote I'd vote for ten players this time around. Here's my ballot:

• Barry Bonds
• Roger Clemens
• Jeff Bagwell
• Mike Piazza
• Craig Biggio
• Mark McGwire
• Larry Walker
• Tim Raines
• Alan Trammell
• Edgar Martinez

2013 MLB Hall of Fame Ballot

 


Each year I do a Keltner List of someone whose Hall of Fame credentials need further examination. I haven't done one this year in part because I've been working on something bigger.  This "project" took up considerable time but I think I'm ready to utilize it now. This is good because it's just in time for the Hall of Fame ballot results to be announced.

There are two ways to build a hall of fame case: a long productive career with many good seasons or a strong peak that puts a player among the elite at their position.  Obviously some players did both but many more players failed to do either.  I've created a ranking system called Hall of Fame Score (HOFSc) which is pretty similar to Baseball Prospectus' JAWS.  HOFSc relies upon WAR values whereas BP uses WARP. So let's review each player's candidacy with my new little toy.

Catchers - Avg HOFSc = 45.5
Sandy Alomar, Jr. (15.0): Sandy was an average catcher who hung around for a long time.  He was the 1990 AL Rookie of the Year and played in two World Series with Cleveland.  He was nothing special as a player but seems he had other non-quantifiable virtues that made him a guy teams wanted to have on their team.

Mike Piazza (57.15): Perhaps the greatest offensive catcher of all time, Piazza should be a lock for the Hall.  I have him ranked as the fifth greatest catcher of all time, just behind Yogi Berra.  There are rumors Piazza was a PED user though I've never seen anything concrete in that regard.

Breaking down the Royals-Rays trade

My friend and former blog contributor Taylor asked me to give my take on the trade. I thought it'd make a pretty nice blog post too so I've pasted what I said.

Ok, here's the deal:

Royals get James Shields (2 yrs $21 million) and Wade Davis (4 yrs, still pre-arbitration) plus a player to be named/cash.

Rays get: #1 prospect Wil Myers, middling prospect SP Mike Montgomery, SP prospect Jake Odirizzi, and 3B Patrick Leonard.

Let's start with the Rays. 

• Wil Myers should immediately start in RF for them. He is the #1 hitting prospect in baseball and even if he doesn't hit for a high average, he has good power and will be a very good player.  
• Jake Odorizzi was probably the first or second best pitching prospect for the Royals. They must not have much faith in him contributing right away or else he would not have been included in this deal.  Tampa probably gives him a shot to win the #5 starter spot in spring training with becoming a #3 starter being his eventual ceiling.
• Mike Montgomery was regarded as the Royals top pitching prospect two seasons ago but since then he's been pretty mediocre or hurt.  He's your classic throw in to a big trade like this where the acquiring team hopes a new coaching staff can help him out of his funk. Boom or bust here.
• Leonard could turn out to be a real steal. He's got a ton of power but right now has trouble making consistent contact.  However, he's only in low A ball and you can't really predict how he'll turn out. He's still too far away.
• Essentially Tampa knew they needed hitting help and had excess pitching so calling up the Royals for Myers is a move that makes too much sense.

Now for the Royals:

• James Shields is 31 years old and is an above average pitcher. He is not an ace. He can win 15+ games for  you and pitch 200+ innings. But remember, Tampa is a pitcher's park and the Rays had the best defense in the majors last year. Those definitely helped his numbers.  However, whose spot does he take in the rotation? Bruce Chen? He's a significant upgrade over what they had but he'll only be around for two years.
• Wade Davis is a guy who the Rays moved to the pen because he was really struggling as a starter. Apparently last year he ironed some things out and many people believe he deserves another shot as a starter. As a reliever he's very good and could work anywhere from long relief to closer.  As a starter he's probably a #4 guy at best - which isn't bad! #4 Starters get $8-12 million dollar contracts these days.
• This trade makes me think the Royals were really frustrated with their inability to trade or sign a front line starter this off-season.  Giving up Wil Myers isn't inherently bad; it's just that they gave up a lot with him for someone who is not an ace.  Now Jeff Francoeur is locked in as the starting RF for another season when it's possible just promoting Myers and cutting ties with Frenchy (the worst position player in the AL last season) would have yielded the same improvement as trading for a new starter.  That's the gut punch.
• The silver lining in all of this is that Wil Myers is not a slam dunk. No prospect is.  All the hype around him is speculative but I'm convinced he's already better than Jeff Francoeur. And with the AL Central a toss up every year the Royals struck while the iron is hot so they can actually try to win now for once.

2012-13 Atlantic 10 Preview

The A-10 is often forgotten when discussing major basketball conferences.  Maybe it’s because most of these schools do not have football or perhaps it’s because most of the members are mid-sized private universities.  Whatever the reason, you can find good basketball here. Five straight years three or more teams qualified for the NCAA Tournament with four teams going in both 2009 and 2012.  The conference has been dominated by Xavier (15 conference titles in 28 years) and Temple (9 A-10 tournament titles) but now new challengers appear poised to make a move. 

The Reigning Champs

Temple
As mentioned above Temple should always be mentioned when discussing the potential contenders for the league crown.  Last year’s squad went 24-8 (13-3) and qualified for the NCAAs.  Unfortunately they were bounced in the first round by South Florida.  It’s going to be tough for the Owls to repeat after losing two starters including leading scorer Ramone Moore. To further complicate matters is the potential ban of stud senior Khalif Wyatt. If Wyatt is out for any length of time I think it makes Temple a bubble team and not a team that can win the conference.

St. Bonaventure
The Bonnies surprised many people (including yours truly) last season in route to winning the conference championship.  They were one and done in the NCAAs though, losing by three to Florida St. in the second round.  Their best player (Andrew Nicholson) was selected in the NBA draft and starting forward Da’Quan Cook graduated. I’m not sure there’s enough left here to compete for a repeat performance.

2012-13 Big Ten Preview

And we're back!  The summer flew by and unfortunately the blog was neglected as a result. But now it's time for college basketball so I'm feeling a little more energetic this weekend.

I'll start off by giving a short preview of all twelve Big Ten teams and then I'll just pick and choose my way through conferences later. So here we go, my predicted reverse order of finish, the Big Ten preview begins now...

12. Nebraska
Last Season: 12-18, tied for 11th in Big Ten
Graduated: G Bo Spencer, G Toney McCray, G Brandon Richardson, G Caleb Walker, C Jorge Brian Diaz (retired)

Brandon Ubel is the last big man left in Lincoln.
He'll need to anchor this team to avoid a last place finish.

New Faces: Devell Biggs, Benny Parker, Shavon Shields, Sergej Vucetic
Outlook: Poor coach Tim Miles.  In his first season as Huskers head coach he'll have only five returning scholarship players including one starter.  There is potential talent coming in but it will have to wait a year due to transfer requirements.  With a short and shallow roster, Nebraska is destined for a last place finish but with three seniors there will be nights when they compete.
Projected Starters:
G Ryan Gallegos (Jr)
G Dylan Talley (Sr)
G Devell Biggs (Jr)
F Andre Almeida (Sr)
C Brandon Ubel (Sr)
Bench: F David Rivers (So), G Benny Parker (Fr), G Shavon Shields (Fr), C Sergej Vucetic (Fr), G Jordan Tyrance (RS Fr), G Trevor Menke (So), F Kyle Kurkowski (RS Fr)

11. Illinois
Last Season: 17-15, tied for 9th in Big Ten
Graduated/Went Pro: C Meyers Leonard, G Sam Maniscalco

What's going on with this guy? He has all the talent in
the world but his disappointing career to date is a micro-
cosm of Bruce Weber's failed tenure in Champaign.

New Faces: F Sam McLaurin (transfer), Devin Langford (redshirt)
Outlook: There are talented seniors on this roster but none of that talent has materialized for any stretch of length. Now, with no freshmen on the team, Illinois will switch to new coach John Groce's system which relies heavily on a talented point guard. If Tracy Abrams can't handle the job it may be a really long year in Champaign. I think this prediction is conservative though, and still believe there's a chance Brandon Paul finally puts it all together.
Projected Starters:
G Brandon Paul (Sr)
G Tracy Abrams (So)
F DJ Richardson (Sr)
F Tyler Griffey (Sr)
F Nnanna Egwu (So)
Bench: F Mike Shaw (So), F Myke Henry (So), F Ibrahima Djimde (So), Devin Langford (RS Fr)

10. Penn St.
Last Season: 12-20, tied for 11th in Big Ten
Graduated: G Cammeron Woodyard, G Trey Lewis (transfer), G Matt Glover (transfer), C Peter Alexis (retired)

Rumors are Penn St. is challenging the NCAAs anti-cloning
rule regarding Tim Frazier. Five of him would be fun to watch!

New Faces: Brandon Taylor, Donovan Jack, Akosa Maduegbunamm
Outlook: Penn State has an excellent backcourt led by All Big Ten selection Tim Frazier.  The frontcourt, however, is a big question mark. Their lack of experience and talent will be exploited by teams with skilled big men.  This will be a fun team to watch and if the young bigs develop an NIT berth isn't out of the question.
Projected Starters:
G Tim Frazier (Sr)
G DJ Newbill (RS So)
G Jermaine Marshall (Sr)
F Ross Travis (So)
F Sasa Borovnjak (Jr)
Bench: G Nick Colella (Sr), F Patrick Ackerman (So), F Jon Graham (So), F Brandon Taylor (Fr), F Donovan Jack (Fr), G Akosa Maduegbunamm (Fr)

9. Northwestern
Last Season: 19-14, tied for 7th in Big Ten, NIT appearance
Graduated: F John Shurna, F Luka Mirkovic

In a loaded Big Ten, it will take a career year
from Drew Crawford to give Northwestern
some excited high fives post buzzer.

New Faces: Jared Swopshire (transfer), Nikola Cerina (transfer), Tre Demps (redshirt), Michael Turner (redshirt), Alex Olah, Kale Abrahamson, Sanjay Lumpkin, Chier Ajou
Outlook: Last year Northwestern became the only Big Ten school ever to go to the NIT four straight years. Sadly, 2012-13 looks like it will be a fifth.  The young talent on this team is real and just like the last two seasons, there will be a point during the season where people think this team has a shot to earn their elusive NCAA bid.  However, I'm bearish on a defense that was twelfth in the conference last season. Once the young guns get a season under their belts this team can really take off.  If the Wildcats don't make the NCAAs in 2013-14 then I'll be surprised.
Projected Starters:
G Drew Crawford (Sr)
G JerShon Cobb (Jr)
G David Sobolewski (So)
F Jared Swopshire (Sr)
F Alex Olah (Fr)
Bench: G Tre Demps (Sr), G Alex Marcotullio (Sr), F Kale Abrahamson (Fr), G Reggie Hearn (Sr), C Aaron Liberman (Fr), F Chier Ajou (Fr), F Sanjay Lumpkin, G Nikola Cerina (Jr)

8. Iowa
Last Season: 18-17, tied for 7th in Big Ten, lost in second round of CBI tournament
Graduated: G Matt Gatens, F Andrew Brommer, G Bryce Cartwright

Basabe might want to start practicing against
adults if he's to lead Iowa back to the NCAAs.

New Faces: Adam Woodbury, Mike Gesell, Kyle Meyer
Outlook: Iowa made huge strides last season under Fran McCaffery.  The fast pace the Hawkeyes play is a bit refreshing in the grind-it-out Big Ten.  This team could finish anywhere from fifth to tenth. Much of that depends on the incoming freshmen and the improvements made by last year's freshmen. Either way this is a team who should be knocking on an NCAA berth this season.
Projected Starters:
G Mike Gesell (Fr)
G Roy Devyn Marble (Jr)
G Josh Oglesby (So)
F Aaron White (So)
C Melsahn Basabe (Jr)
Bench: F Eric May (Sr), F Zach McCabe (Jr), C Adam Woodbury (Fr), F Gabe Olaseni (So), F Kyle Myer (Fr)

7. Minnesota
Last Season: 23-15, tied for 9th in Big Ten, lost in NIT championship
Graduated: F Ralph Sampson, Chip Armelin (transfer)

Here's to hoping Trevor Mbakwe can be the same player
he was before he tore his ACL. The man was a beast in the paint!

New Faces: Charles Buggs, Wally Ellenson
Outlook: Minnesota must wonder what they've done to upset the basketball gods. Each year they look like a contender only to have injuries severely hamper their roster. Last season was no exception and it took until late in the year for the team to come together. If this team can just stay healthy they can compete with anyone in the conference. I'm not one to bet against history hence my prediction that the Gophers finish in the middle of the pack. That shouldn't prevent this team from qualifying for the NCAA tournament.
Projected Starters:
G Andre Hollns (So)
G Austin Hollins (Jr)
G Joe Coleman (So)
F Rodney Williams (Sr)
F Trevor Mbakwe (RS Sr)
Bench: F Elliott Eliason (RS So), G Charles Buggs (Fr), G Julian Welch (Sr), G Maverick Ahanmisi (Jr), G Wally Ellenson (Fr), F Andre Ingram (Sr), F Oto Osenieks (So),

6. Purdue
Last Season: 22-13, 6th in Big Ten, lost in Round of 32 to Kansas
Graduated: F Robbie Hummel, G Ryne Smith, PG Lewis Jackson, G/F Kelsey Barlow (dismissed)

Purdue fans held many candlelight vigils in an attempt
to rectify Terone's embarrassing .435 FT%.

New Faces: Ronnie Johnson, Donnie Hale (redshirt), AJ Hammons, Raphael Davis, Jay Simpson
Outlook: The Boilermakers are a team in transition. The Baby Boilers are officially gone and are replaced by one of the nation's top recruiting classes. Led by guard Terone Johnson and seven footer AJ Hammons, Purdue will look to clamp down on defense and make the lane a place opponents avoid .  There will be struggles for this team but head coach Matt Painter has only failed to win twenty-two games once in his career as a head coach.
Projected Starters:
G Ronnie Johnson (Fr)
G Terone Johnson (Jr)
F DJ Byrd (Sr)
F Donnie Hale (RS Fr)
C Sandi Marcius (RS Jr)
Bench: G Raphael Davis (Fr), G Anthony Johnson (RS So), C AJ Hammons (Fr), F Jacob Lawson (So), F Jay Simpson (Fr), F Travis Carroll (Jr), F Dru Anthrop (Sr)

5. Wisconsin
Last Season: 26-10, 4th in Big Ten, lost in Sweet 16 to Syracuse
Graduated: PG Jordan Taylor, G Rob Wilson

By channeling his inner Manute Bol,
(draining 3's, blocking shots), this string bean
has become a very good player.

New Faces: Sam Dekker, Zak Showalter
Outlook: The Badgers lost All-American candidate point guard Jordan Taylor and their top perimeter player Josh Gasser will miss the season after tearing his ACL.  Things may seem dark but haven't we learned not to count Bo Ryan out? Wisconsin has never finished worse than fourth in his eleven years with the program.  I'm picking them fifth here but that's no slouch in the country's top conference. Also, I expect them to make the Sweet 16 for the sixth time in the last eleven years. This is a solid program.
Projected Starters:
G George Marshall (RS Fr)
G Ben Brust (Jr)
F Ryan Evans (R Sr)
F Mike Bruesewitz (Sr)
C Jared Berggren (R So)
Bench: G Sam Dekker (Fr), C Frank Kaminsky (So), G Traevon Jackson (So), C Evan Anderson (RS So), F Duje Dukan (Jr), G Jordan Smith (So), G Zak Showalter (Fr), F Zach Bohannon (RS Jr)

4. Michigan
Last Season: 24-10, tied for 1st in Big Ten, lost in first round to Ohio
Graduated: F Zack Novak, G Stu Douglass

Trey Burke is flipping awesome. The Wolverines
might want to win some tournament games this year
because I doubt he's back for his junior season.

New Faces: Glenn Robinson III, Mitch McGary, Nik Stauskas, Max Biefeldt, Spike Albrecht, Caris Levert
Outlook: The Wolverines surprised many by winning a share of the Big Ten last season but followed that up with a very disappointing loss in the first round of the NCAAs. This season they're bringing in the conference's top recruiting class and look to reclaim a share of the title.  While their starting lineup may be the best outside Bloomington, their depth remains questionable. Still, this is a team that should earn a top four or five seed in the Big Dance come April.
Projected Starters:
G Trey Burke (So)
G Tim Hardaway (Jr)
F Glenn Robinson III (Fr)
F Mitch McGary (Fr)
C Jordan Morgan (Jr)
Bench: F John Horford (RS So), G Matt Vogrich (Sr), G Eso Akunne (Sr), C Blake McLimans (Sr), G Nik Stauskas (Fr), F Max Biefeldt (RS Fr), G Spike Albrecht (Fr), G Caris Levert (Fr)

3. Ohio St.
Last Season: 31-8, tied for 1st in Big Ten, lost in Final 4 to Kansas
Graduated/Went Pro: F Jared Sullinger, G William Buford, Jd Weatherspoon (transfer), Jordan Sibert (transfer)

Sure Craft fouls on every play, but that's more a knock on
officials than him.  Expect him to lead the BIG in steals again.

New Faces: G Amedeo Della Valle
Outlook: Ohio St. may have lost its two best players last season but that is no reason to expect them to fall down the Big Ten standings. Aaron Craft is possibly the most tenacious defender in the college ranks while DeShaun Thomas is still an underrated scorer.  Though many people may not recognize the names on the roster, everyone should remember Thad Matta doesn't rebuild. He just reloads.
Projected Starters:
G Aaron Craft (Jr)
G Lenzelle Smith (Jr)
F DeShaun Thomas (Jr)
F Sam Thompson (So)
C Amir Williams (So)
Bench: PG Shannon Scott (So), F Evan Ravenel (Jr), F LaQuinton Ross (So), G Alex Rogers (Jr), G Amedeo Della Valle (Fr)

2. Michigan St.
Last Season: 29-8, tied for 1st in Big Ten, lost in Sweet 16 to Louisville
Graduated: F Draymond Green, G Brandon Wood, F Austin Thornton

Some may say this was Branden Dawson's date
with Karma for the way he spurned Purdue.

New Faces: Gary Harris, Denzel Valentine, Matt Costello, Kenny Kaminski
Outlook: The Spartans again have loaded up their non-conference schedule in an attempt to prepare for the NCAA tournament.  Izzo knows they may struggle early but as Branden Dawson continues to improve (torn ACL) and the team gels they'll be right there in Big Ten play. I'm calling an Elite 8 appearance for this team.
Projected Starters:
G Keith Appling (Jr)
G Gary Harris (Fr)
F Branden Dawson (So)
F Adreian Payne (Jr)
F Derrick Nix (Sr)
Bench: PG Travis Trice (So), F Denzel Valentine (Fr), G Brandon Kearney (So), F Alex Gauna (So), G Kennan Wetzel (So), F Matt Costello (Fr), G Kenny Kaminski (Fr)

1. Indiana
Last Season: 27-9, 5th in Big Ten, lost in Sweet 16 to Kentucky
Graduated: G Verdell Jones, F Tom Pritchard, G Matt Roth

I feel you, Oladipo. You're the most under-
rated player in the BIG. Hello NBA.

New Faces: Yogi Ferrell, Peter Jurkin, Jeremy Hollowell
Outlook: Want to know why IU is the consensus #1 team in the country? Last year they ranked fourth in the nation in offensive efficiency and the entire starting lineup is returning. The top bench players are also coming back and IU landed a top five recruiting class. The defense may still be bad but with this offense that shouldn't be a problem.  This team should win the conference and go to the Final Four.
Projected Starters:
G Yogi Ferrell (Fr)
G Victor Oladipo (Jr)
F Will Sheehey (Jr)
F Christian Watford (Sr)
F Cody Zeller (So)
Bench: F Derek Elston (Jr), G Jordan Hulls (Sr), G Remy Abell (So), Maurice Creek (RS Jr), F Austin Etherington (So), F Jeremy Hollowell (Fr), C Peter Jurkin (Fr)

All Big Ten First Team
C Cody Zeller
G Victor Oladipo
G Aaron Craft
G Trey Burke
F DeShaun Thomas

All Big Ten Second Team
G Terone Johnson
G Brandon Paul
G Tim Frazier
C Jared Berggren
F Trevor Mbakwe

Who will be the next 300 game winner?

Recently I was listening to a Phillies game on the radio and I heard the announcers talking about how Roy Halladay stands a good shot at winning 300 games and if he does how he'll possibly be the last to do so for a long time. Later Dave Schoenfield of ESPN.com blogged about the statement too.  They were right in acknowledging that he's had great durability and that durability will need to continue as he ages if he's to have any chance.  Pitching for the Phillies right now doesn't hurt either since they've been one of baseball's most consistently good teams in the past half decade.

As much as I'm impressed by him I don't believe Roy Halladay has the best chance of winning 300 games of active pitchers. I do believe the next 300 game winner is active, however.  I've often mentioned to friends that I thought CC Sabathia had a real shot of winning 300 after he signed with the Yankees three years ago and this little exercise will give me the opportunity to compare him side by side with Halladay.

First off, here's a little breakdown of every pitcher who's had a shot of winning 300 games since 1980:

		Total Wins	Wins before turning 30	Wins after 30	Age at 300th Win	Age of Final Win	Date of 300th Win
Randy Johnson		303	64	239	45	46	6/4/09
Tom Glavine		305	124	181	41	42	8/5/07
Greg Maddux		355	151	204	38	42	8/7/04
Roger Clemens		354	146	208	40	44	6/13/03
Nolan Ryan		324	122	202	43	46	7/31/90
Tom Seaver		311	146	165	40	41	8/4/85
Don Sutton		324	139	185	41	43	6/18/86
Phil Niekro		318	31	287	46	48	10/6/85
Steve Carlton		329	133	196	38	43	9/23/83
Gaylord Perry		314	58	256	43	44	5/6/82
Tommy John		297	98	199	N/A	46	N/A
Bert Blyleven		287	156	131	N/A	41	N/A
Ferguson Jenkins		284	135	149	N/A	40	N/A

The first thing that stands out is that every 300 game winner has pitched into their 40's and with the exceptions of Steve Carlton and Greg Maddux they've needed to in order to get the milestone.  Another important thing to note is how important it is to be successful in your twenties.  Unless a pitcher can continue pitching until he's 45 he'll need to earn about 120 wins in his twenties to have a realistic shot.  One thing that's not noted in the chart but should be pointed out is that durability is extremely important.  Missing a season can easily set you back enough so that 300 wins is just enough out of reach that a team won't be willing to sign an aging hurler with fading skills.  With that being said here are the best candidates among active pitchers for reaching 300 wins:

		Age	Wins	Wins/Yr	Wins before 30	Wins Needed	Wins/Yr Until 41*
Jamie Moyer		49	269	14	34	31	N/A
Roy Halladay		35	192	17	99	108	18.0
Tim Hudson		36	183	16	101	117	23.4
CC Sabathia		31	181	17	172	119	11.9
Mark Buehrle		33	164	14	122	136	17.0
Roy Oswalt		34	159	16	111	141	20.1
J. Verlander		29	111	18	111	189	15.8
Dan Haren		31	108	14	101	192	19.2
F. Hernandez		26	88	14	88	212	14.1
Jered Weaver		29	87	16	87	213	17.8
Zack Greinke		28	80	12	80	220	16.9
Cole Hamels		28	79	14	79	221	17.0
Tim Lincecum		28	71	15	71	229	17.6
C. Kershaw		24	50	14	50	250	14.7

*Note: I'm using the age of 41 because the average age of players earning their 300th win in the first table is 41.5

Injury and crappy bullpens have cost Tim Hudson more wins than I care to count.

• How amazing is Jamie Moyer?  He only earned 34 wins prior to his 30th birthday and now has 269 on his resume.  Sure he's 49 but what a remarkable career.  This may be his final season as he's coming off Tommy John surgery and is not as effective as he was pre-surgery (when he was 47).  
• Roy Halladay is second on the list with 192 career victories.  If he's to get 300 wins he'll need to average 18 wins a year over the next six seasons.  That's tough but not impossible, especially with the way he's been pitching the last few seasons.
• Tim Hudson is hurt here thanks to losing half of 2008 and all but seven starts worth of 2009 to injury.  I don't have data available but I willing to bet he led the majors in wins blown by bullpen from 2000-2010.  
• Mark Buehrle and Roy Oswalt have roughly the same shot in my opinion. Buehrle's been plagued by slipping effectiveness while Oswalt has trouble staying healthy.  The odds are stacked against them.
• Justin Verlander is a tricky one to put odds on.  He is absolutely the best pitcher in the American League right now and is extremely durable (look at those innings pitched numbers over the past five seasons: 201, 201, 240, 224, 250).  I'd like his odds better if I believed he'll still be pitching when he's 40.
• Haren is a bit of a late bloomer. He's just now entering his prime and his odds can really improve with a couple more good seasons.
• Weaver, Lincecum, Greinke, and Hamels are all in the same boat. They're young and have a long way to go.  Six years ago Barry Zito would have been in their age group but he had 102 wins so be careful when making projections.
• Clayton Kershaw is a really interesting case.  At just 24 years old he's already 16% of the way there.  Last year's Cy Young Award winner is just too far away to project with any certainty.  An injury could derail him but he's so good that if he doesn't lose too much effectiveness it would only be a minor setback.  He's a fun one to watch.

After factoring in age and career wins presented in the table above, it's clear to me CC Sabathia has an excellent chance at reaching 300 wins.  Roy Halladay is the guy closest with a reasonable chance which is probably why he's the one being talked about most. After CC and Hallday, Felix Hernandez has probably a one in three shot since he's still only 26 and may have 100 career victories by the end of this season.  Everyone else is still too young or too far away to take seriously.  When some of these guys reach 200 wins then we can talk.

Josh Hamilton's 4 HR game

Josh Hamilton is good. We all know this.  In fact, in mid-April ESPN blogger Dave Schoenfield had a post demonstrating how no one should ever throw a strike to Hamilton.  Part of this is because as of today he's walked only 13 times in 138 plate appearances with five of those coming intentionally.  Eight walks in his other 133 appearances gives him a 6% walk rate meaning he'd draw around 50 unintentional passes in an entire season.  While that's not exactly Mariano Duncan* he's no Adam Dunn either.  Last Wednesday Hamilton set an American League record by accumulating 18 total bases in one game.  Let's take a look and see where these pitches were located in each of his at-bats.

*Sidenote: Duncan's career high in walks was 38 and it came in 1985, his rookie season. He would walk 30 times the following season but never again walk more than 24 times in his 12 year career. 

2012 NFL Draft: My mock

The NFL Draft is probably my favorite non-competition sporting event of the year and it begins this Thursday.  As you're probably aware the format changed two years ago when the league decided to break up the draft from a two day format to it's current three day format.  This new format has earned it's own spot on prime time and even spurned some creativity in the war room as trades are more prevalent now than ever.
The first round of the draft may now be second only to the playoffs in the interest it receives. It doesn't hurt that there's months of talk and speculation building up to this day (got to give the NFL credit for capitalizing on the marketing potential here).  So, in the months weeks leading up to the draft you're sure to come across someone talking about their mock draft. There are plenty of well known people who make them like Peter King, ESPN's Todd McShay and Mel Kiper, as well as thousands of unknowns at sites like www.draftdebacled.com and www.mockingthedraft.com. With all that as a preface, I'd like to take my first shot at creating a mock draft.  Please keep in mind that this draft will NOT be close to what actually happens. Correctly predicting the first five picks is hard but predicting picks from 15-32 is futile. Still, it's a lot of fun.  Here I go...

The Colts have made it clear Luck is going to be #1

1. Indianapolis: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford - We know this is the pick.  Andrew Luck is the best quarterback prospect since Peyton Manning and some even say since John Elway.  He's the third quarterback I saw in college that convinced me there's no way he won't be an elite NFL player. I've already mentioned the first was Manning. The second? Matt Leinart.  Oof. Moving on...
2. Washington: Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor - The Heisman Trophy winner would go number one in any normal draft year.  He's got incredible mobility, is accurate, and just seems like a good guy. The Redskins are dying for a franchise QB and they paid a pretty penny to move up, but if he works out it's worth the cost.
3. Vikings trade #3 overall to Rams for #6 overall and additional picks. St. Louis: Matt Kalil, OT, USC - I think the Vikings realize they can get a great player at 6 and will trade out of this spot and St. Louis now has picks to trade after getting extra firsts and a second from Washington. The Rams know Sam Bradford can't become a superstar playing behind this offensive line and will move up in order to get the best tackle in the draft.
4. Cleveland: Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama - It seems the Browns aren't quite sold on Tannehill and a deeper wide receiver class means there's value to be found later.  Former Colts GM Bill Polian is on record saying Richardson is the best player in the draft.  With the departure of RB Peyton Hillis, the Browns are on the lookout for a top runner and Richardson is not only that but he should be able to play every down.  
5. Tampa Bay: Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU - The Bucs need a long term answer at defensive back since Aquib Talib has legal issues and Ronde Barber is 53 years old. Morris Claiborne is a stud, no doubt about it. This pick will do wonders for the defense in a couple of years. 
6. Minnesota: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame - Claiborne is probably their top rated player but he won't be available after the trade.  A lot of teams have Floyd rated as the #1 reciever in this class thanks to his speed and playmaking ability. Despite signing Jerome Simpson, the team is still looking at starting Michael Jenkins. Not good.  They'll have two second rounders after trading with St. Louis where they can look for a corner and another offensive lineman.
7. Jaguars trade #7 overall to Chiefs for #11 overall and additional picks.  Kansas City: Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M - The Chiefs move up to #7 in an effort to snag Tannehill ahead of Miami.  Tannehill is clearly the third best QB in the class but he's a good prospect nonetheless.  The majority of his flaws are correctable with coaching and experience.  Chiefs fans will be thankful to see there's only one more year of the Checkdown Cassel.
8. Miami: Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma St. - The Tannehill trade takes them by surprise leaving the team to decided between an offensive player or a pass rusher.  Brandon Marshall is no longer around which makes Devon Bess the team's de facto #1 wideout. That adis the decision making process  allowing Miami to take the other receiver scouts say is the best in the class.
9. Carlina: Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi St. - The team's greatest weakness is in stopping the run. Cox is a perfect fit for the 4-3 and excels at making plays in the backfield.  While he's no Suh, he'll be an excellent player sooner than later.
10. Buffalo: Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina - Buffalo addressed the D-line in free agency and now they're fixing the secondary. Gilmore is a heck of an athlete at a position where the Bills are soon to be thin.  McKelvin and Florence are in the last year of their deals while the other CBs on the roster have more questions than answers. 
11. Jacksonville: Melvin Ingram, DE/OLB, South Carolina - The Jaguars are big winners here. They move down four spots and still grab the guy they wanted.  The team has whiffed on first round pass rushers in the past but Ingram seems too good to be true.
12. Seattle trades #12 overall to Dallas for #14 overall and a third rounder. Dallas: Mark Barron, SS, Alabama - There's been a lot of momentum gathering for Barron so when Dallas sees him available at #12 they take no chances by trading up. Barron is a physical player who might remind Cowboy fans of Roy Williams with his big hits and presence in the run game. He very well may become a playmaker in the passing game also.  His skill set and potential to improve explain why he's rated so highly.
13. Arizona: Cordy Glenn, OT/G, Georgia - The Cardinals are in a bit of a tough spot here.  It will be hard for them to trade down at this point and it's hard to diagnose how the draft will develop behind them.  Glenn is rated anywhere from the second to fifth best tackle in this draft but he showed marked improvement at the position as a senior after proving himself as an All-American candidate at guard. He's a solid if unspectacular choice.
14. Seattle: Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama - Pete Carroll has been pretty open about his desire to improve the pass rush. Upshaw can play both standing up and with his hand on the ground which is important in the Seahawks hybrid scheme. Coming from an elite college program only enhances his value in Carroll's eyes.
15. Philadelphia: Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College - Kuechly is probably one of the top 10 players in the draft but middle linebackers are known to slip. The Eagles' patience pays off as they nab a guy who makes their defense instantly better in a number of ways. 
16. NY Jets: Quintin Coples, DE, North Carolina - Coples desire, or lack thereof, cause him to drop despite putting up good numbers.  The Jets are disappointed to not land Ingram or Upshaw but will be pleasantly surprised to land Coples. The pass rush stunk last year and Coples is the no-brainer pick to help fix it.
17. Cincinnati: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama: The Bengals are looking for another lockdown CB after losing Jonathan Joseph a year ago to free agency.  While Kirkpatrick hasn't proven to be much of a playmaker he can still lockdown guys and prevent them from getting open.
18. San Diego: David DeCastro, OG, Stanford - I'm not good at grading offensive lineman but by all accounts DeCastro is a can't miss guy.  What drops him so low is his position; offensive guards and centers rarely go in the top half of the draft.  The Chargers are desperate for help on the interior line so this is a match made in heaven.
19. Chicago: Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa - The Bears have neglected their line in the draft far too often.  They're likely very disappointed DeCastro didn't make it one more spot but they can't afford to give up picks just to jump around in the draft.  Reiff is a mauler but drops because of concerns of having "short" arms. At worst he'll be an excellent right tackle.
20. Tennessee: Devon Still, DT, Penn St. - Still says he can play anywhere on the line and is really quick off the line.  The Titans need depth at all defensive line spots so this is a value pick more than anything. Still will be a good player in the right system.
21. Cincinnati: Michael Brockers, DT, LSU - The Bengals go best player available here. Brockers is an excellent fit for a team that wants to run the ball and stop the run. Brockers may be the best DT in the draft so falling here is quite a steal for the Bengals.
22. Cleveland trades the #22 overall pick to Denver for #25 overall and an additional pick. Denver: Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis - The selection of Brockers at #21 motivates Denver to move up and grab the last big name tackle - probably their biggest weakness right now. Last season the Broncos proved they can rush the passer with Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil and the team upgraded the offense immensely by signing of Peyton Manning. Now they need to focus on stopping the run and creating pressure up the middle. 
23. Detroit: Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama - Despite character concerns, Jenkins is a first round talent and will be taken somewhere in the first round.  The loss of Eric Wright depletes an already questionable secondary making this pick somewhat justified. The Lions have a few players with off the field troubles already so this pick does carry some risk.
24. Pittsburgh: Dont'a Hightower, ILB, Alabama - Hightower was the player that stood out the most on the Alabama defense last season. He's an excellent run defender and is likely to become a defensive captain. The Steelers have a knack for finding these guys.
25. Cleveland: Chandler Jones, DE, Syracuse - With a deep receiving class Cleveland knows they can wait a bit longer before grabbing some talented players instead of reaching for someone here.  The Browns do not have a strong pass rush and Jones will be a nice addition to their 4-3 scheme.
26. Houston: Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor - Houston needs to get at least two receivers in this draft and so they take the highest rated one available here. Wright will complement Andre Johnson (who just turned 30) and could one day become a #1 himself. This is a team that needs an immediate impact player to be that one missing piece to a Super Bowl contender.
27. New England: Nick Perry, OLB/DE, California - The Patriots have never shied away from taking players who rate high on their board despite how other teams view them.  Nick Perry seems a good fit in this case, as he can take the departed Mark Anderson's spot. He'll need to become better at defending the run though if he's to become a more complete player.
28. Green Bay: Whitney Mercilius, DE, Illinois - Finding a bookend pass rusher to Clay Matthews seems to be the team's #1 priority in the draft. Taking Mercilus fits that need and probably spoils New England's next pick.
29. Baltimore: Kevin Zeitler, OG, Wisconsin - A lot of people have mocked Peter Konz here but I don't think it's a good fit. Konz is a finesse blocker whereas Zeitler uses power (he led the nation with 142 knockdown blocks this season) which is perfect for the Ravens run oriented offense.
30. San Francisco: Reuben Randle, WR, LSU - The 49ers could lose Michael Crabtree after this season and while he hasn't lived up to expectations, he is the teams' best receiver. Randle is a developmental talent who's freaky athletic and could turn into a solid player under Jim Harbaugh's tutelage. 
31. New England: Shea McClelland, DE, Boise St. - McClellan is another player who will fit in nicely at linebacker in the Patriot system similar to Rob Ninkovich. Some may question his on field athleticism but that didn't stop the Patriots from taking Brandon Spikes either. The Pats are dying for pass rush so they'll use the first two picks to shore it up.



What character concerns? At the ripe old age of 21 Jenkins already has
four children and multiple marijuana arrests.  But he's a great dad!

32. NY Giants: Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin - When you're the defending champs there's a lot of different directions you can go with your first pick. The Giants need a good interior lineman and while Konz isn't necessarily a guard, he should be able to slide over and do quite well until it's time to become the Giants full time center. Running back was a consideration here as well.

2012 MLB Preview: Predictions

It's a little late but I've decided to publish my preseason predictions anyway.

American League
East
New York	96	66	Have a solid rotation to match formidable offense
Tampa Bay	92	70	Maybe the best rotation in baseball
Boston	87	75	Lack of depth will cost them
Toronto	85	77	Still building but no playoffs in this division
Baltimore	68	94	Future is bright but rotation is worst in AL
Central
Detroit	91	71	Will lead the league in runs scored, errors
Cleveland	80	82	Need one more starter to be a factor
Chicago	77	85	Rios, Dunn rebound but Peavy, bullpen falter
Kansas City	76	86	Still waiting on young pitching to make impact
Minnesota	62	100	Questions about Mauer, Morneau, Baker linger
West
Texas	95	67	Most well rounded team in AL
LAA	89	73	Still have problems at LF, 3B, C
Seattle	73	89	Back end of rotation no match for AL offenses
Oakland	70	92	Cespedes and Weeks are good but not enough
National League
East
Atlanta	87	75	Heyward bounceback, trade of Lowe is enough
Philadelphia	86	76	Injuries to Howard, Utley hold team back
Miami	84	78	Poor outfield defense really hurts in new park
Washington	82	80	Too many questions on offense
New York	75	87	Not as bad as many expected
Central
Milwaukee	88	74	Greinke, Gallardo, Marcum combine for 54 wins
Cincinnati	87	75	Votto, Bruce lead league in teammate HR
St. Louis	84	78	Berkman, Beltran not as good as 2011
Pittsburgh	76	86	Deadline deals prevent team from reaching .500
Chicago	69	93	Theo's first year will be his worst
Houston	50	112	Have questions everywhere except 2B, LF
West
San Francisco	91	71	Great pitching and good offense takes division
Arizona	90	72	Upton, Young become top NL outfield duo
Colorado	78	84	Tulo accumulates more WAR than any 2 'mates
Los Angeles	77	85	Disgruntled Ethier, Kemp regression hurt team
San Diego	75	87	Hang tough thanks to home field advantage

2012 MLB Preview: NL Central

The final division I'm previewing is the National League Central.  This division has seen four different winners in the past four seasons and the last team to repeat as division winner was Chicago who did it in 2007 and 2008.  Three teams haven't finished with a winning record in the same season since 2008 when four teams did it (Cubs, Mil, Hou, Cards).  At first glance this season seems to have three good teams and three not so good teams.  The Cardinals are fresh off a World Series Championship and though they lost the best player in baseball, still have great pitching and a talented offense.  The Brewers lost a star of their own but look to get bounce back years from several players to go along with their own three-headed monster in the rotation.  Cincinnati has the best player in the division and seems poised to make a jump back into the playoffs.  The bottom three teams are a different story. The Pirates flirted with .500 for three and a half months last year before falling apart.  The Cubs are rebuilding and don't expect to contend but are still better than Houston.  Houston had their worst season in franchise history last year and sadly things don't look any better.  With six teams this division is unique; the division won't necessarily be won by who has the best record against the contenders but instead by who has the most success against the Pirates and Cubs.

Chicago Cubs

2011 Record: 71-91

2012 Estimated Team Salary: $88.2 million
Highest Paid Player: Alfonso Soriano - $18 million
Best Player: Starlin Castro led the league with 207 hits last season. I don't think this will be the last time that happens.
Best Pitcher: Even though Dempster's had more success, Matt Garza is the best pitcher on the staff. Last season he struck out nearly 9 batters per 9 innings.  He could break out this year.
Say Hello To: David DeJesus OF, Chris Volstad SP, Anthony Rizzo 1B, Casey Weathers RP, Ian Stewart 3B, Andy Sonnanstine P, Joe Mather OF, Paul Maholm SP
Wave Goodbye: Carlos Zambrano SP (Mia), Carlos Pena 1B (TB), Aramis Ramirez 3B (Mil), John Grabow RP (LA), Ramon Ortiz RP (SF), Tyler Colvin OF (Col)
Biggest Questions:
1. Will Theo bring home a championship?  That's the goal, but it's not going to happen this year. The Cubs minor league system is exhausted preventing them from making improvements to the major league club and they're cutting back on payroll so no marquee free agents will be added. Let's talk again in two years.

2. Is Alfonso Soriano just dead weight? When the Cubs signed Soriano in 2007 he was coming off a 46 home run season.  Since then he's hit 30 homers just once and is averaging 26 homers per year as a Cub.  Never a walker, his OBP dipped to new lows last season (.289) meaning he's now a liability in the lineup. The Cubs will have to pay anyone to take him at this point.

3. Can Jeff Samardzija be successful as a starting pitcher?  Scouting reports indicate Jeff should stick to the pen but he wants to start and the Cubs aren't going anywhere this season so why not give him a try?  Velocity isn't Samardzija's issue, it's movement or rather, lack of movement. With a straight fastball and a flat breaking pitch, any time Samardzija's control isn't pinpoint he runs the risk of getting hit hard. 

Expectations: It's going to be a long year on the Northside.  The Cubs are lucky they're in the same division as Houston or they'd likely finish with the worst record in the National League.

With the loss of Aramis Ramirez and the steady decline of
Soriano, Marlon Byrd is now the second best Cub.

Probable Opening day lineup:

1. DeJesus RF
2. Barney 2B
3. Castro SS
4. Soriano LF
5. Stewart 3B
6. Baker 1B
7. Byrd CF
8. Soto C

Probable Rotation/Closer
1. Dempster
2. Garza
3. Samardzija
4. Volstad
5. Maholm

CL: Marmol