Prospect 4 Pack

Unlike the two previous seasons, I did not do a prospect watch this year.  Part of it was because I didn't see a position that is overflowing with talent like center field and catcher.  The other reason is because I thought I could just do periodic updates to see how the top prospects are faring during the season. Performance is 2/3 of how guys get their ratings.  The other third comes from potential to improve.  Every player has "tools", it's just a matter of what they can do with those tools to become successful. It's important to keep that in mind when reviewing how each player is doing throughout the year. To start I'll do a run down on the top four prospects in my mind entering this season.

• Julio Teheran SP Atlanta  

Although only 20 Teheran started the year in AAA and so far has started six games with dominating results. He's 3-0 with a 1.91 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. He's struck out more men than hits allowed, too.  His only real flaw is his inconsistent command of his curve ball and change-up which were prevalent in his major league debut against the Phillies.  The Braves rotation is already excellent so Teheran may be called up to be a reliever down the stretch as the Braves try to make it back to the playoffs.

2011 NFL Draft Thoughts: Final Impressions

Well, last weekend was fun.  This post is coming a little late I know, but it's also given me time to go over each team's draft and think about how each pick can potentially impact current rosters and direction of each team.  It's too early to give each team a grade but it's not too early to see who tried to help themselves and who didn't.  It's no surprise that the teams who performed the best on draft day are winning franchises. The Lions may not fit the mold but once Matt Millen was fired they've had some good drafts and begun turning things around.

 Don't cry, Mark. The Saints trading up to select you is my favorite move of the NFL Draft.

Three Teams Whose Drafts I Like

1. Indianapolis Colts
1. Anthony Castonzo OT
2. Ben Ijalana OT
3. Drake Nevis DT
4. Delone Carter RB
5. Chris Rucker DB
• A lot was made of how horribly Peyton Manning played last season.  Not as many people talked about how awful the Colts offensive line was. No, they didn't give up a lot of sacks - Manning is masterful at getting rid of the ball - but running game was atrocious. The line couldn't block for the run game or the pass game and as a result Manning was rarely comfortable. In my opinion Castonzo was the best tackle in the draft and will protect the blind side immediately. Ijalana is another prospect who will anchor this line from day 1. He might not start at RT but he should end up there.  Drake Nevis is a great fit in the Colts 4-3 scheme and will help against the run. Delone Carter will likely be the #3 running back to start but could end up being the main guy if Donald Brown can't stay healthy.  He's already better than Mike Hart. Chris Rucker is a special teamer and depth at a position where the Colts always have injury issues. I love this draft and the Colts should be better now and in five years from now.
2. New Orleans Saints
1. Cameron Jordan DE
2. Mark Ingram RB
3. Martez Wilson ILB
4. Johnny Patrick CB
5. Greg Romeus DE
6. Nathan Bussey OLB
•  Despite having Drew Brees the Saints were never completely in sync last year. The defense lacked the big plays that they lived on in 2009 and the offense suffered injuries at the running back position.  With the first pick New Orleans took best player available in DE C. Jordan who just so happened to fit in with their needs list. He should start immediately.  I've already talked about what a great move it was to get RB Ingram.  Martez Wilson is a big hitter who will slide in next to Scott Shanle.  Johnny Patrick is a CB who could turn into a very good nickel back, Greg Romeus is an excellent run defender and will stick with the team, Nathan Bussey adds depth and special teams ability. The Saints are instant contenders again.
3. Detroit Lions
1. Nick Fairley DT
2. Titus Young WR
3. Mikel Leshoure RB
4. Douglas Hogue OLB
5. Johnny Culbreath OT
• The Lions did not address the offensive line or secondary which most fans and draft pundits agreed were their two biggest needs.  They did, however, add play makers to three key positions which make them instant playoff contenders. I think only Cam Newton is a higher bust risk than Nick Fairley but if Fairley works out watch out! Fairley next to Suh is downright scary. Two DTs that are excellent pass rushers will increase the pressure off the edge and in theory improve the DBs.  Titus Young provides a quick underneath target so Megatron won't be double teamed on every play.  Mikel Leshoure is likely going to steal a lot of carries from Javhid Best and is more durable.  Douglas Hogue was a productive player in college but I'm not sure if he'll have much of a career in the NFL. Johnny Culbreath is a nice developmental pick who could stick at tackle in a couple of years. Expect the Lions to go after a CB and OT if there's free agency.

Honorable Mention

• Baltimore Ravens - Got a good CB (Jimmy Smith), a speedy WR (Torrey Smith), a potential possession receiver (Tandon Doss), and a OT prospect (Jah Reid). Filled their needs without having to reach or trade. The playoff streak will continue.
• Cincinnati Bengals - Took the best player in the draft (AJ Green), a QB they're sold on being their franchise QB (Andy Dalton), an underrated pass rusher (Dontay Moch),  and perhaps the best interior lineman in the draft (Clint Boling) all by the fourth round. An excellent draft for a rebuilding team.
• New York Giants - Got a the second best CB (Prince Amukamara), another pass rushing DT (Marvin Austin), a big play WR (Jerrel Jernigan), a big OT (James Brewer), and a tackle machine (Greg Jones) at linebacker. They had perhaps the best value pick of any team in every round of this draft.

2011 MLB Predictions: Awards

Now that I've completed my divisional previews I suppose it's time to get down to the nitty gritty.  Believe me when I say I'm glad I finished the previews.  By the time I'd gotten to the National League Central I was pooped.  Then I was rewarded by doing write-ups for Pittsburgh and Houston.  At least the Pirates have a brightening future.
Anyway, this post will be dedicated to my award winners and due to reader request I will also put down my predicted records for each team.  First, the records:

AL East				NL East
Boston	98	64		Philadelphia	97	65
New York	90	72		Atlanta	92	70
Tampa	84	78		New York	81	81
Toronto	78	84		Washington	73	89
Baltimore	73	89		Florida	73	89
AL Central				NL Central
Chicago	87	75		Milwaukee	91	71
Detroit	83	79		Cincinnati	88	74
Minnesota	80	82		St. Louis	83	79
Cleveland	79	83		Chicago	77	85
Kansas City	70	92		Pittsburgh	68	94
				Houston	61	101
AL West				NL West
Texas	94	68		Colorado	93	69
Oakland	90	72		San Fran	88	74
Los Angeles	83	79		Los Angeles	80	82
Seattle	58	104		San Diego	70	92
				Arizona	68	94

Putting that table in was a huge pain in the butt.  As you can see no surprises in the division winners unless you think Milwaukee is a big underdog.  My biggest surprise is picking Oakland to win the AL Wild Card. If this holds true to form this is how I think the playoffs will go:
Boston over Oakland                   Milwaukee over Philadelphia
Texas over Chicago                     Colorado over Atlanta
Boston over Texas                        Milwaukee over Colorado

Boston over Milwaukee (hey, I can dream, right?)

Now your Award winners:
AL MVP                                     NL MVP
1. Adrian Gonzalez                     1. Troy Tulowitzki
2. Robinson Cano                       2. Albert Pujols
3. Miguel Cabrera                       3. David Wright

AL Cy Young                              NL Cy Young
1. Brett Anderson                        1. Tim Lincecum
2. CC Sabathia                            2. Josh Johnson
3. Neftali Feliz                            3. Tommy Hanson

AL Rookie                                  NL Rookie
1. Jeremy Hellickson SP (TB)    1. Craig Kimbrel RP (Atl)
2. J.P. Arencibia C (Tor)             2. Freddie Freeman 1B (Atl)
3. Dustin Ackley 2B (Sea)         3. Brandon Beachy SP (Atl)

Good thing I'm not a betting man.

2011 MLB Predictions: NL Central

Unimpressed with his Matrix moves, Chapman fires a fastball at Keanu's head.

It wasn't until the funeral when he learned it's just a movie.

The National League Central has been the home to mediocrity in recent seasons.  In each of the past two seasons a whopping 91 wins has won the division while four teams failed to win at least half their games. I'm not certain that will continue this season but I am certain the bottom two teams in this division will challenge each other for the first pick in next year's amateur draft.

Let's get to it:

Milwaukee Brewers
Best Player: Prince Fielder
Best Pitcher: Zack Greinke 
Biggest off-season move:  Trading for Zack Greinke was the type of "all-in" move fans get excited about. This may be the team's best chance for a while.
Biggest off-season loss: By trading Alcides Escobar, the Brewers are now stuck with Yunieksy Betancourt at SS.
Biggest Questions:
1. Will Prince Fielder be re-signed? It seems unlikely the Brewers will be able to retain their best player after this season so the team needs to win it all.
2. Will Zack Greinke rebound? A goofy injury suffered while playing pick-up basketball will keep Greinke sidelined for a bit, but Greinke should be great once he makes it back.
3. Can the bullpen hold enough leads? This is not a good 'pen but when that's your biggest weakness it's not a bad one to have.
Expectations: This team is assembled to make the playoffs and with Fielder and Braun they should make some noise once they get there.
Opening day lineup:
1. Weeks 2B
2. Gomez CF
3. Braun LF
4. Fielder 1B
5. McGehee 3B
6. Kotsay RF
7. Betancourt SS
8. Nieves C
SP Yovani Gallardo

2011 NFL Draft Thoughts: Round 1

It finally happened! Since I don't have TV I was relegated to watching the NFL Network's live coverage streaming over the internet. What I would have given to trade for ESPN and Jon Gruden's insight! Instead I was listening to Michael Irvin shout over Mike Mayock while Steve Mariucci and Marshall Faulk made jokes with each other. At least I got about a half hour of Tom Waddle.

Anyway here's some moves I really liked:

1. Cleveland Browns trading the sixth pick for Atlanta's 1st & 4th rounders in 2011 and 2012 plus their second rounder in 2011. Wow. Good job, Holmgren!
2. The Saints moving back into the first round to grab the BPA and their new franchise running back. They only gave up their second rounder this year and their first rounder next year - which we can assume will be a late pick since they'll likely make the playoffs.
3. Cam Newton going #1 overall so the Bills didn't pick him.
4.  The top four teams from last season in my mind (Bal, Pit, NYJ, GB) all getting great value late.  There' s a reason these teams have been competitive in the past and will remain competitive in the future.

Here's some things that have left me perplexed:

1. Atlanta couldn't find a trade partner closer to ten? I understand the need for another WR but moving up 21 spots costs a lot and they still paid too much.
2. Why did the Bears want to trade up 3 spots? Supposedly they got the guy they wanted in the end, but did they really think Baltimore, KC, and New Orleans would draft an offensive lineman? Maybe they just wanted to make the Ravens look bad by having their pick expire. Point noted.
3. Da'Quan Bowers (I have him rated #7 overall) falling completely out of the first round. Teams must be really scared of his medical records on his knees.  
4. The run on QB's. Gabbert falling to ten isn't a big deal but Locker and Ponder both being gone by pick 12? These teams better be sold on them or else some GMs are going to lose their jobs. 

As we head into round two here's who I think are the top 10 available players:

1. Da'Quan Bowers DE - Top 10 talent has scared teams off with shaky medical records
2.  Stephen Paea DT - I was hoping Buffalo would go Peterson then Paea or QB in the second round (not Andy Dalton, please!)
3. Akeem Ayers LB - Good pass rusher, decent in coverage, but questionable angles towards ball carriers has lowered his perceived value
4. Aaron Williams CB/FS - Had a rough senior year but he's loaded with talent
5. Kyle Rudolph TE - Could be another great do-everything tight end
6. Brooks Reed DE - Another quality pass rusher who likely slipped due to run on QBs
7. Stefen Wisniewski OG/C - Strong, tough interior lineman who can really run block
8. Marvin Austin DT - Super quick but teams aren't impressed with his work ethic
9. Michael Leshoure RB - Similar to Mendenhall but smaller. 
10. Ryan Williams RB - Teams who passed on a RB in round 1 (Miami) could get a potential Pro-Bowl back here.

2011 MLB Predictions: NL West

What Lincecum (right) fails to realize is he just lost in the first round of the World Series of Beard. 

Brian Wilson (left) would go on to win both championships last November.

Instead of writing a preview of the National League Central we'll skip it and head to the West. The Central has six teams and will take a bit longer so I'll save it for last. In the West you've got the defending champions as well as some of the best players in baseball. Let's take a look.

Colorado Rockies
Best Player: Troy Tulowitzki is not only the best SS in baseball but possibly the best player in the National League.
Best Pitcher: Ubaldo Jimenez had 16 wins at the All-Star break last year.
Biggest off-season move:  Adding Ty Wigginton who can play each infield position may pay dividends.
Biggest off-season loss: Clint Barmes was a solid middle infielder.
Biggest Questions:
1. Is the rotation good enough to make the playoffs?  The rotation has questions, yes, but if Jason Hammel and Jorge de la Rosa are healthy they'll be just fine.
2. Was Carlos Gonzalez a fluke last year? Oakland gave up on him because they viewed him as an all-tools guy who couldn't put it together. I think those tools have translated into success.
3. What happens when Todd Helton gets hurt again? Helton's back issues are no secret but he's done better lately at staying in the lineup. Regardless, Colorado should have ample infield depth with Jose Lopez, Ty Wigginton, and Ian Stewart.
Expectations: This is a playoff caliber team and anything short of the playoffs will put pressure on everyone in the organization to get back to the level Colorado was at in 2008.
Opening day lineup:
1. Fowler CF
2. Smith RF
3. Gonzalez RF
4. Tulowitzki SS
5. Helton 1B
6. Wigginton 3B
7. Lopez 2B
8. Iannetta C
SP Ubaldo Jimenez

2011 MLB Predictions: NL East

 David Wright believes his Lord Helmet can save him from the Schwartz as well as concussions.

Now it's time for the NL East.  The Phillies seem to be the champion on paper but let's take a deeper look.

Philadelphia Phillies
Best Player: Chase Utley but we don't know how long he'll be out. After Utley it's probably Ryan Howard.
Best Pitcher: Roy Halladay is the obvious answer here.
Biggest off-season move:  Adding Cliff Lee shocked everyone.
Biggest off-season loss: Jayson Werth was the team's third best hitter and was a good defensive outfielder.
Biggest Questions:
1. When will Chase Utley return? No one is certain if he'll be back in May or if it will be at the All-Star break. The Phillies may not need him to make the playoffs but winning the World Series will be an uphill climb without him.
2. How good is the rotation? Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and Roy Oswalt are four of the top twenty five pitchers in baseball. If no injuries beset the staff the offense won't need to be nearly as powerful as it has been in recent seasons.
3. Is Dominic Brown ready to be an impact player?  The Phillies don't need the rookie to be an all-star but with Utley hurt and Werth gone there is a void on offense.  Brown was the top hitting prospect last season but many scouts worry the team is too left-handed with him in the lineup.
Expectations: This is a World Series contender.  Anything short of reaching the Series will likely be seen as a disappointment.
Opening day lineup:
1. Victorino CF
2. Polanco 3B
3. Rollins SS
4. Howard 1B
5. Ibanez LF
6. Francisco RF
7. Ruiz C
8. Valdez 2B
SP Roy Halladay

2011 MLB Predictions: AL West

Hamilton looks up after attempting to set the record for highest infield pop-fly.

Texas Rangers
Best Player: Josh Hamilton was last year's MVP.  I think it's safe to say he's the best player on the team.
Best Pitcher: Neftali Feliz. Another team whose best pitcher is a reliever. They toyed with making him a starter in spring training but decided not to fix what's not broken.
Biggest off-season move:  Tired of Michael Young's "defense" in the infield, the Rangers signed Adrian Beltre and his gold glove to man the hot corner.  Young is now the team's utility player and DH.
Biggest off-season loss: When Cliff Lee bolted for Philly, the Rangers lost their only stud starter.
Biggest Questions:
1. Can the rotation hold up well enough for the Rangers to repeat as division champs?  As I stated earlier, Cliff Lee was a big game pitcher for this team.  They hope CJ Wilson wasn't a flash in the pan and that Derek Holland and Scott Feldman can continue to improve.
2. Will Josh Hamilton stay healthy enough to play a full season?  We already know the answer to this question is no as Hamilton broke his arm this week.  Hamilton's only managed to play 135 games one time in his career.
3. Will Michael Young be happy in his new role? I doubt he is but will he keep his mouth shut and produce enough to be around when Texas plays in October? He already voiced his displeasure in the off-season about being replaced but the guy needs to look in the mirror and see he's not the player he was even three seasons ago.
Expectations: Texas' offense should finish in the top three in runs scored in the American League. The bullpen will be decent enough as long as Feliz is used as needed, but the major question is with the starters. I imagine they'll do just fine as Texas makes it back to the playoffs and possibly the World Series.
Opening day lineup:
1. Kinsler 2B
2. Andrus SS
3. Hamilton LF
4. Beltre 3B
5. Young DH
6. Cruz RF
7. Napoli 1B
8. Torrealba C
9. Borbon CF
SP CJ Wilson

2011 MLB Predictions: AL Central

When I finish all the previews I'll add a post in which I predict each team's final record as well as individual award winners.

Chicago White Sox
Best Player: Tough one. I think I'd take Dunn though if Beckham plays like he did down the stretch last season he's the pick.
Best Pitcher: Jon Danks - not Buehrle -is the best pitcher on the team. It would be Peavy if he could make more than 12 starts.
Biggest off-season move:  Adam Dunn is the perfect hitter for Cellular One Field.
Biggest off-season loss: Many may disagree but losing Bobby Jenks hurts the bullpen's depth.
Biggest Questions:
1. Can Gordon Beckham rebound? Beckham hit .270/.347/.460 as a rookie but slipped to .252/.317/.378 last year with only 9 home runs. Can improve on his rookie season's performance  and become a superstar or will he just be an average second baseman?
2. The Bullpen.  Gone are Putz and Jenks.  Chris Sale is up to take one spot but can Jesse Crain and Will Ohman be consistent enough to keep Ozzie of their backs?
3. Third base. Brent Morel won the job in spring training but he's no superstar. If he slumps Ozzie will throw Teahen out there and we know how that went last season.
Expectations: This offense is good. Expect lots of base stealing attempts from Pierre, Rios, and possibly Beckham. Expect lots of home runs. Expect good starting pitching. I also expect a division title.
Opening day lineup:
1. Pierre LF
2. Beckham 2B
3. Dunn DH
4. Konerko 1B
5. Rios CF
6. Quentin RF
7. Pierzynski C
8. Ramirez SS
9. Morel 3B
SP Mark Buehrle

MLB Predictions: AL East

Wow, I apologize to my readers for not having posted this prior to the start of the season.  Time has really gotten away from me. I'll do my best to get my predictions up for the season in the next few days. Each year I do a season preview for each team but this year I've decided to amend it a bit in order to make it easier to read and easier for me to compile.

Boston Red Sox
Best Player: Kevin Youkilis is the guy I'd most like to have in real life. Carl Crawford in fantasy.
Best Pitcher: Jon Lester
Best off-season move:  Signing Carl Crawford to a 7 year mega-contract and trading for 1B Adrian Gonzalez tie for the best move.
Biggest off-season loss: Adrian Beltre
Biggest Concerns:
1. Team defense.  Although Adrian Gonzalez is an excellent defensive player, having Youkilis slide back over to 3B where he did not play last season hurts a little bit. Also Crawford is probably wasted in left field 81 times this year due to the Green Monster and Jacoby Ellsbury does not rate well at all in center field.
2. Will Varitek and Saltalamacchia hit?
3. Can Josh Beckett rebound or is he now a back-end of the rotation pitcher?
Expectations: If Boston fails to reach the playoffs heads will roll.  On paper this is the best team in baseball and expectations are that they will reach the World Series.
Opening day lineup:
1. Ellsbury CF
2. Pedroia 2B
3. Crawford LF
4. Youkilis 3B
5. Gonzalez 1B
6. Ortiz DH
7. Cameron RF
8. Saltalamacchia C
9. Scutaro SS
SP Jon Lester